Want to know Intel and AMD's release plans for this year and next? We have the roadmap details.

The multicore era is upon us

Megahertz will take you only so far. Desktop processors topped the 1GHz mark in 2000, 2GHz in 2001, and 3GHz in 2002. Nearly five years later, we've yet to see a chip leave the factory clocked at 4GHz. Power demands and heat concerns meant that AMD and Intel couldn't simply keep ramping up clock speeds with each new CPU generation without running into design obstacles with desktops and, especially, with notebooks.

Having come to the end of the megahertz rope, Intel and AMD looked to other methods for increasing processing power while maintaining or improving efficiency, the most significant of which was increasing the number of processing cores on a CPU. The multicore era began in spring 2005 with Intel's Pentium D 800 dual-core chips, and AMD soon followed with the Athlon 64 X2 chips. AMD dominated the initial round of head-to-head benchmarks, and Intel's subsequent Pentium D 900 series, released in the autumn of 2005, did little to dampen the enthusiasm for AMD's X2 line.

AMD's run was short-lived as Intel sped back into the lead last year. Intel released the first dual-core mobile chip with Core Duo in January 2006, which brought about huge advances in notebook performance. Following that success, its Core 2 Duo launch in the summer of 2006 — for both desktops (Conroe) and notebooks (Merom) — can arguably be called the most successful product launch in the company's history. AMD is still reeling.

What sort of response is AMD readying to combat the runaway hit that is Core 2 Duo? What advances does Intel have in store later this year and next? How will each company expand on its nascent quad-core technology? We'll answer these questions and more as we explore Intel's and AMD's roadmaps, both the officially announced technologies around the corner and the rumours of those still lurking over the horizon. 

Roadmap plans

Intel and AMD's roadmap plans

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Q2 2007

Q2 2007

Not long after its Athlon 64 X2 processors toppled Intel's Pentium D chips, AMD found itself back in the familiar role of underdog when Intel moved to its 65-nanometer process and released the Core 2 Duo to universal praise last year. AMD introduced its first 65nm desktop chips at the end of 2006 with an update to its Athlon 64 X2 line. Throughout the rest of the first half of the year, AMD will continue to roll out 65nm Athlon 64 X2 parts, possibly with faster clock speeds (one of the benefits of reduced power consumption).

Dip your toes in Bearlake
Sometime this spring or early summer — the company has yet to pin an exact date on it — Intel will introduce a new chipset, which it's developing under the code name Bearlake. Intel did tell us the chipset will feature a 1,333MHz front-side bus and support for faster memory including DDR2-800 and DDR3-1333; new Core 2 Duo processors — Core 2 Duo E6650, E6750 and E6850 — will be introduced at the same time that will support the faster front-side bus. The Bearlake chipset family will be divided into the P series, which will have a dedicated PCI Express graphics port, and the G series, which will feature an integrated graphics chip.

Bearlake chipset families 

As with AMD's recently announced 690 chipset, the G35 chipset will come with HDCP support, making it easy for motherboard manufacturers to pair it with an HDMI video output. We also expect that the integrated graphics chip on the Intel G35 chipset (if not the G33 as well) will be DirectX 10 compatible, although we anticipate that using graphically demanding applications with an integrated graphics chip will remain a less-than-ideal experience.

In addition, Intel will expand its mainstream Core 2 Quad desktop chips by adding the Core 2 Quad Q6400 to its lineup in June. With new software coming out that demonstrates definite performance benefits from four processing cores, our hunch is this June release of a relatively lower cost quad-core chip will begin to convince users that four cores really can help mainstream performance.

Movement on the mobile front
Intel will announce a new mobile platform this quarter, code-named Santa Rosa (some sources claim it will be released as Centrino Pro), built around its existing lineup of Core 2 Duo processors — although rumour has it the company will release a high-end 2.4GHz version of the processor to coincide with the platform launch. Intel promises that the platform's new chipset, code-named Crestline, will bring improved integrated graphics performance;reportedly this performance enhancement will come as a result of an 800MHz front-side bus. Other elements of Santa Rosa include the Kedron wireless card, which will feature 802.11n interoperability, as well as integrated options for 3G and WiMax connectivity.

All of those features sound enticing, but the most exciting development with Santa Rosa might be its new Robson caching technology. Essentially a quantity of NAND flash memory that's incorporated into the motherboard, Robson stores a cache of commonly accessed information, such as the operating system and software, so you can boot the computer or launch applications without spinning the hard drive.

Intel gave a demo of a Robson-equipped notebook at its Intel Developer Forum in late 2005. The early sample reportedly booted instantly and took only seconds to start up common applications. More recently, an Intel representative told us that Robson cuts load and resume times in half, and because the hard drive motor spins less often, also saves 0.4W on power. That may not sound like much, but, depending on factors such as screen size and optical drives, it could bring as much as 20 additional minutes of battery life.

Mobile platforms

AMD also will see enhancements to its platform, code-named Kite, this quarter. Because AMD's platform is less strictly integrated than Intel's (the company describes it as an 'open ecosystem', allowing notebook manufacturers to choose the wireless and graphics elements of the platform), the Kite refresh will be centered around a new processor family, code-named Hawk. The new processors will mark AMD's transition to a 65nm manufacturing process for mobile CPUs and will support high-performance, 800MHz DDR2 memory. The company also promises that Kite will include a chipset with HDMI support as well as support for 802.11 Draft-N wireless solutions (AMD's next mobile platform will support the final 802.11n standard, which is expected to be ratified in April 2009).

AMD presented a roadmap at an analyst day in December 2006 that also implied that Kite could make room for hybrid hard drives, which incorporate flash chips for fast data access, and hybrid graphics, which let you switch from a discrete graphics card (maximum performance) to an integrated graphics card (maximum battery life). According to some reports, the hybrid graphics solution will automatically switch from discrete to integrated graphics when the system is unplugged.

Q3 2007

Q3 2007

AMD goes native
AMD's most significant introduction this quarter, and arguably this year, will be its new quad-core Opteron server and workstation CPU, code-named Barcelona. This chip will be AMD's first native quad-core chip (that is, four cores on one die) of any kind, and it will also feature a brand new architecture and a 65nm manufacturing process. Barcelona will hopefully be an improvement over AMD's current and ill-conceived) Quad FX platform, which features a motherboard that can accept two physical dual-core processors.

One of the chief benefits of a native design will be a unified cache that can balance the processing load between various cores, including letting a single core or two cores use all of the cache — translating, in theory, to faster performance. Under the current scheme that pairs two dual-core chips to make an ad hoc four-core computer, each pair of cores can use only the cache that has been assigned to it. Naturally, the Opteron design will trickle down to desktop chips as well, so consider it a preview for what we hope will come out on the desktop side from AMD before the end of the year.

Intel readies high-end Bearlake chipset
Whether Intel's mainstream Bearlake chipsets come out in Q2 or Q3, Intel confirmed for us that it will be July before X38, the high-end member of the Bearlake family, hits the street. Aimed at gamers and performance enthusiasts, the X38 will feature support for 1,333MHz DDR3 memory, and it also will come with a pair of PCI Express 2.0 graphics slots, which double the data bandwidth of current PCI Express slots from 2.5Gbps to 5.0Gbps. That should translate to great benefits for 3D graphics performance, especially with next-generation games played at high resolutions.

One thing we don't know is whether these dual-slot boards will support only ATI's Crossfire dual graphics card mode, as Intel's 975X motherboards do today, or if Intel and Nvidia will finally come together and add SLI support to an Intel chipset. Since Nvidia has a lucrative business with its own nForce SLI chipsets, we're not holding our breath. At any rate, the Intel X38 chipset should prove popular with gamers for enabling advances in memory and graphics performance.

Q4 2007

Q4 2007

AMD focuses on quad cores for desktops
If everything goes according to plan with the quad-core Opteron, we have a feeling we'll see the first native quad-core Athlon processor for desktops before the end of 2007. We've heard rumours it may happen before the fourth quarter, but AMD won't verify any dates so we'll slot it into Q4 as a conservative estimate. We do know these new chips, code-named Agena, will use the Barcelona core, including HyperTransport 3.0. AMD's current Athlons use HyperTransport 2.0 to move data between different PC subsystems. HyperTransport 3.0 will work at faster data rates than the older version and should boost performance. Whether it's enough of a performance leap to help Agena and its dual core-equivalent (code-named Kuma) overtake Core 2 Duo remains the big question.

Introducing a native quad-core desktop part is important for AMD because the company's ad hoc Quad FX solution cannot keep pace with Intel's faster quad-core Core 2 Extreme or Core 2 Quad chips. Granted, Intel's Core 2 Quad chips aren't technically native quad core either, since their design involves two distinct L2 cache allotments for each pair of processing cores. But 65nm Core 2 Quad is much more power and heat efficient than current Quad FX, which requires two physical 90nm CPUs on a single motherboard, along with the accompanying cooling hardware.

Intel wins race to 45nm
Of course, Intel isn't letting up. The company has completed its 45nm manufacturing process, and by the end of the year we expect to see the fruits of that labour. Similar to the release of the Core 2 Extreme X6800 before the rest of the Core 2 Duo line, Intel's highest-end 45nm desktop chips, code-named Wolfdale (dual core) and Yorkfield (quad core), will likely make their first appearance before the close of 2007, with the mainstream counterparts debuting in the beginning of 2008 (we predict we'll hear about them at next year's CES). Since for the most part these chips are more power-efficient Core 2 Duos, the Wolfdale/Yorkfield family probably won't introduce a major technological or performance leap. They're all 45nm chips, so Intel should be able to dial raw clock speeds and cache amounts past their current-generation Core 2 equivalents, but the most significant pure technology change will be a new set of multimedia and performance instructions, called SSE 4.0, which promises to improve data processing efficiency and, hopefully, overall performance.

H1 2008

H1 2008

Socket to me
At this point, AMD should have its next-generation quad-core chips up and running, and it could even be wearing the desktop performance crown. If it's not, its next-generation motherboard socket, Socket AM3, due out in early 2008, might help it gain ground. Socket AM3 should allow AMD to catch Intel's Bearlake chipsets by adding support for 1,333MHz DDR3 memory, if not faster. From what we understand, the Socket AM3-compatible processors also will work with current Socket AM2 boards (although not vice versa), so you'll be able to extend the life of an AMD-based PC if you buy one this year.

Mobile platform advances
With the release of the new Puma platform in the first half of 2008, AMD will bring out a brand-new mobile processor design, this one code-named Griffin. A key advancement with this CPU family will be the introduction of split power planes for granular power management. Each processor core will have its own power plane, with a third plane beneath the integrated memory controller and HyperTransport link. This design lets Puma chipsets control each plane independently, distributing and conserving power based on workload. AMD promises further power savings with 'link power management', which applies the same dynamic scaling to HyperTransport link speeds.

In addition to better power management, the chip-to-chip connections in Puma will meet the HyperTransport 3.0 standard, which could result in higher clock speeds and theoretically more efficient use of memory. Other technology updates on the platform include support for the final 802.11n specification and for DirectX 10, as well as the company's Universal Video Decoder technology, which provides dedicated video processing on the chipset.

Alhough Intel remains tight-lipped about its plans after the release of Santa Rosa, observers agree that the first half — possibly even the first quarter — of 2008 is the most likely time frame for the introduction of mobile versions of Penryn, Intel's 45nm chip. Essentially a shrink of Core 2 Duo chips, Penryn includes a few enhancements; one such upgrade, SSE 4.0 instructions, will (according to Intel) improve the performance of multimedia applications. Another improvement will stem from Intel's switch to new materials for transistors, which should result in lower power consumption.

According to more than one report, Penryn will form the centerpiece of Intel's updated Centrino platform, code-named Montevina. The new platform will reportedly build upon its predecessor, incorporating a new chipset (Cantiga) with a 1,066MHz front-side bus as well as a new wireless module (Shiloh). Expected features for Montevina include Robson 2.0, which will take better advantage of Windows Vista's instant-on capabilities, and Intel Trusted Execution Technology, which protects data from malicious software.

H2 2008

H2 2008

Say hello to Nehalem
Where Penryn was Intel's move to increased power efficiency, Nehalem, which is set to debut in the latter half of 2008, will introduce a brand-new architecture. This pattern of shrinking the die one year and then revamping the core architecture the next is how Intel chip development will proceed — at least under its currently stated release plan (see table at the foot of the page). Expect that 2009 will feature more power-efficient, 32nm-process Nehalem-equivalent chips (code-named Westmere), while 2010 will feature a new chip architecture design (code-named Gesher), and so on.

Although little is known about Nehalem at this point, multiple sources contend that Intel will drop the front-side bus altogether and link the CPU to other components on the board via Common System Interface, a next-generation interconnect technology designed to compete with AMD's HyperTransport.

AMD's projections are a bit murkier. We have a feeling we'll see at least a 45-nanometer Opteron before the end of 2008, if not a full-fledged 45nm, HyperTransport 3.0 Athlon desktop processor.

WiMax wager
In the realm of wild speculation, we suspect Intel will incorporate the Intel WiMax Connection 2300 into its mobile platform in 2008. The technology, which combines WiMax(802.16e-2005), 802.11n Wi-Fi and high-speed downlink packet access (HSDPA) 3G capabilities on a single chipset, would allow even smaller notebooks and UMPCs to incorporate multiple next-generation wireless connections. At this point, Intel will only commit to releasing WiMax Connection 2300 cards in early 2008, but our money says that if WiMax takes off, we'll see the chipset integrated into Intel's mobile platform before the end of the year.

Intel's 'tick-tock' cadence model
Intel has settled on an alternating schedule of shrinking the size of its chips with one release ('tick') while revamping the chips' architecture with the next release ('tock'). A 'tick-tock' cycle will occur every two years:

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2009 and beyond

2009 and beyond

AMD's acquisition of graphics chipmaker ATI should bear some collaborative fruit in early 2009, when the company is expected to debut the mobile Fusion product. Combining the CPU cores and GPU cores into one 'accelerated processing unit', AMD anticipates that Fusion will provide a better graphics and media experience and (because only one chip is drawing power) extended battery life for notebook users.

Intel is keeping characteristically quiet on its plans for 2009, but CNET News.com reporter Tom Krazit noted earlier this year that the company was hiring developers for discrete graphics products. Krazit went on to hypothesise that the job posting, which described plans to focus initially on discrete graphics but then expand to work on CPU integration, signalled Intel's intent to develop an integrated GPU-CPU to compete with AMD's Fusion product.

Beyond traditional processors, our hunch is that the traditional desktop architecture is due for a revolution within the next few years. AMD's acquisition of graphics chip vendor ATI, AMD's Torrenza, and Intel's Geneseo and CSI initiatives, and Nvidia's CUDA all point to silicon performing new and different tasks and in combinations and arrangements we haven't really seen before. We don't expect to see much in the way of a tangible new computing model emerging this year, but what we envision when we think of a computer could be in for a dramatic change sooner than you think.

Finally, if you're wondering what's next in the race for multicore supremacy, both AMD and Intel have motherboards out that will accommodate two quad-core CPUs, which lets you build an eight-core computer. We pulled the same trick on the Mac Pro a few months ago. We found no details, official or otherwise, regarding native eight-core chips in our research for this story, but it's not hard to imagine that eight-core processing might make its way to the desktop within the next few years. It could be that Intel's 45nm Nehalem is heat efficient enough to make an eight-core (octo-core?) CPU possible, so perhaps we'll see one as soon as 2008. We have a feeling Intel will be the first to make the leap, since AMD is still playing catch-up in terms of moving to 65nm and introducing quad core. Whether the software will be ready to benefit from eight-core chips when they inevitably arrive is another question.

Where we stand today

How we got here: where we stand today

Desktop CPU recap
The dual-core PC era began in April 2005 when Intel released the Pentium Extreme Edition 840 processor, a 3.2GHz, 90nm chip. Following this pricey Extreme Edition chip was 'dual-core for the mainstream' in the form of the Pentium D 800 series. Intel's second-generation dual-core chips, the Pentium D 900 series, were released in early 2006 and saw the company move to the 65nm process. During this time, AMD was garnering rave reviews with its dual-core, 90nm Athlon 64 X2 line, thanks in large part to its integrated memory controller. Whereas Intel's chips still needed to shuttle data via the slower front-side bus to communicate with system memory, AMD's chips featured a memory controller on the die that operated at the same frequency as the processor itself.

It wasn't until Intel introduced its Core technology in July 2006 that we were able to fully grasp the benefits of dual-core processing. The architecture behind Core 2 Duo chips not only brought about leaps in performance but also improved efficiency. Although they didn't introduce an on-die memory controller, the chips did introduce a host of architectural improvements — most significantly a unified cache structure. Instead of a separate allotment of L2 cache dedicated to each of the two cores as was the case with Intel's previous dual-core chips and AMD's Athlon 64 X2 CPUs, Core 2 Duo chips had one large pool to pull from, which provides greater flexibility in allowing each core to access more cache as needed.

The advantages of multicore processing can be seen when multitasking or running a multi-threaded application. Although some multi-threaded apps such as Photoshop and iTunes are available, more programs released in the near future will be designed to run on multicore processors. Vista was built to run on multicore processors, for example, while XP was primarily a single-threaded operating system.

The way CPUs will continue to advance won't be with increased clock speed, but with more cores. Intel released a quad-core chip, the Core 2 Extreme QX6700, in November 2006 and then came out with a mainstream equivalent, the Core 2 Quad Q6600, at CES in January 2007. AMD answered with the Quad FX.

Intel and AMD each continue to manufacture single-core processors for budget PCs. You'll still find low-end systems featuring Intel's Pentium 4 and Celeron D chips alongside those featuring AMD's Athlon 64 and Sempron parts.

Notebook CPU recap
Intel's current practice of marketing a whole mobile platform under a single name began in early 2003 with the introduction of Centrino. The platform designated a specific combination of Intel-manufactured processor, wireless card and integrated graphics that the company claimed was optimised for better performance and battery life. Released to coincide with the Centrino launch, the first Pentium M processor (code-named: Banias) signalled Intel's commitment to manufacturing CPUs specifically for use in notebooks, with features designed to lower both heat output and power consumption. From its inception and through a refresh in 2005 (Dothan), the Centrino platform incorporated a Pentium M processor, an Intel Mobile Express chipset and Intel PRO/Wireless Wi-Fi card.

The third generation of Centrino (Napa) was inaugurated in early 2006 with the release of the first mobile Core processors. As the name implied, Core Duo processors (released in January) provided the first mobile dual-core experience, while the Core Solo (released in April) used the same dual-core die, but with only one active core. The new Centrino platform included a Core processor, Intel Mobile 945 Express chipset, and Intel PRO/Wireless 3945ABG Wi-Fi; the platform name 'Centrino Duo' refers to a Centrino system with a Core Duo processor.

The platform's most recent update came in late summer of 2006, when Intel launched the Core 2 Duo (Merom) processor, which among other improvements doubled the amount of L2 cache found on its predecessor and brought gains in performance and battery life. Aside from the processor update, the Centrino platform remains the same.

Concurrent to these developments, Intel has maintained the Celeron M line of budget processors. Celerons are built on the same architecture as the current generation of high-end CPUs (for example, Pentium M or Core), but generally feature half the L2 cache and lack some of the newest power and processing management technologies. In addition, Intel developed the Pentium Dual-Core at the request of notebook manufacturers. This budget dual-core processor has a smaller shared L2 cache and fewer power management features than Core 2 Duo. Neither Pentium Dual-Core nor Celeron processors are considered part of the Centrino platform.  

A survey of the notebook market today would reveal Celeron, Core Solo, Core Duo and Core 2 Duo processors, with a few Pentium Dual-Core and some residual Pentium M systems.

AMD, meanwhile, started designing processors specifically for the mobile market (and not just adapting desktop processors for notebooks) in 2005. March of that year saw the release of Turion 64, which featured support for 64-bit computing and new power management features. The company released its first dual-core mobile processor, the Turion 64 X2, in May 2006. AMD has continued to manufacture its Mobile Sempron line for the budget market; unlike its higher-end siblings, Mobile Sempron does not support 64-bit computing, nor does it incorporate AMD'sHyperTransport technology.

Historically, AMD hasn't manufactured graphics cards or wireless solutions, so the company's mobile platform is based on what its marketing department calls an 'open ecosystem'. AMD ensures its processors and chipsets work with all the major third-party graphics and wireless solutions so notebook manufacturers can choose each element individually. That pattern is set to change, at least a little, now that AMD has acquired graphics chipmaker ATI; although the company outwardly remains committed to providing an open platform, we expect to see tighter integration between AMD processors and ATI graphics cards in the future.

A survey of the notebook market today would reveal Mobile Sempron, Turion 64 and Turion 64 X2 systems.

Current desktop CPUs

Current desktop CPUs

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Current notebook CPUs

Current notebook CPUs

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