Markets fall in love with Linux

Daily Newsletters

Sign up to ZDNet UK's daily newsletter.

NEWS
There's nothing like a 1,500-percent-plus stock-value jump to catch the attention of investors. Ever since Red Hat, a seller of Linux software, went public and rocketed skyward, investors have eagerly anticipated the growth of a hot new IPO sector. Two more Linux-oriented firms will go public this week -- VA Linux and Andover.net -- and plenty more are on the horizon. But what's the best way to play the rapidly evolving Linux market? It's a foregone conclusion of most analysts and investors that both VA Linux and Andover.net will soar in the public markets. "It appears the IPO players will have a huge windfall," says David Menlow, president of data firm IPO Financial Network in New Jersey. "It's only a question of how high these open... As for VA Linux, this one is probably the best stock for the rest of the year." Echoes IPO analyst Tom Taulli, "This is definitely a big Linux week." Red Hat's stock performance proved there is a huge appetite for shares related to Linux, the "open-source" operating system that was developed by a loosely organised network of programmers worldwide. That appetite only increased this fall when a federal judge ruled Microsoft, maker of the dominant operating system Windows, a monopoly and thus possibly subject to a wide range of new restrictions. Two schools of thought have quickly emerged over the fate of Linux-oriented companies and stocks. One crowd, even at this early stage, considers the Linux arena to be an overheated niche that will quickly fill up and consolidate. A separate consensus believes the Linux field is endlessly large and evolving (just like Windows computing) and that there is vast room for a countless number of players. "This is really a very early portion of the overall Linux movement," contends William Roseman, co-chairman of the Linux Fund, which has investments in about a dozen early-stage Linux-oriented companies. "I think you'll see considerably more investment.... We haven't even reached the cusp of it yet." The two firms going public this week bear little relationship to one another -- other than the Linux affiliation. VA Linux (whose name didn't even include the word Linux until recently) is a maker of computer servers. For the most part, according to Forrester Research analyst Matthew Nordan, the servers are "commodity" machines, much like the ones distributed by many other suppliers. However, VA Linux ships its servers with Linux installed, and while it isn't alone in doing that, the company makes a point of offering extra customer support for Linux operation. VA Linux also makes desktop systems that use the renegade operating system, and it supports them as well. Linux is particularly well-suited to Web-serving tasks, and the largest customers of VA Linux are companies employing Internet infrastructure, such as eToys, StarMedia Network and Akamai Technologies. With revenues of nearly $18m (£11m) in the latest fiscal year, VA Linux is backed by a strong team of financiers, including underwriter Credit Suisse First Boston. Andover.net, by contrast, is an information portal. Intended to be the Yahoo! of the Linux world, Andover.net makes money mostly from advertising. Annual revenue is about $1.4m, and the company employs roughly 50 people. With its recent acquisitions of the popular Slashdot.org and Freshmeat.net sites, the company believes it now commands about half the total Web audience seeking information and tools for Linux development. Because Andover.net is partly a media play, some analysts aren't quite as hot on Andover as they are on VA Linux. And yet, no one predicts a flop. There is one more twist, however. Andover.net's IPO will be handled as a Dutch auction, meaning, at least theoretically, that the price it fetches in the IPO will reflect the true demand for the stock. This system runs counter to the behaviour of most Internet-stock offerings, in which relatively few shares are offered at a price often set below market, sending the share value soaring during early trading hours and days. Many investors (and perhaps even more reporters) don't fully understand the Dutch auction system. ("I'm somewhat in the dark about some of the nuances," admits one IPO analyst.) The misunderstanding has frustrated underwriter W.R. Hambrecht ("It's an ongoing education," laments a Hambrecht spokesperson) and it has led to misplaced disappointment in IPOs that don't jump substantially upon commencing. Despite all that, most expect the Andover IPO to be a strong one. And they admit the reason is simply that Linux is white-hot in the investment world right now. To understand the Linux market dynamics, consider, for instance, the case of Corel, the Canadian maker of WordPerfect and other software applications. When Corel came out with a packaged version of Linux (the core code is available free), its shares skyrocketed. Still, the firm's stock trades at about $15 a share, vs. about $6 a couple months ago. Cobalt Networks, meanwhile, which makes single-function servers that happen to run on Linux, has risen more than 500 percent since its initial offering just last month. Given that environment, it came as a surprise to no one that Andover.net just raised its expected initial stock-price range, to a maximum of $18, from $15 previously. Despite the mounting momentum for anything Linux, Nordan, the Forrester analyst, believes the companies covered by that blanket will eventually be recognised as too diverse for such a treatment. Listing off the various companies, from the portal to the specialised-server maker, Nordan says: "You quickly see that these companies have virtually nothing in common. They just all like to play up the Linux connection." What do you think? Tell the Mailroom . And read what others have said. See techTrader for more technology investment news, plus quotes and research.

Post your comment

In order to post a comment you need to be registered and logged in.

You can also log in with Facebook. Log in or create your ZDNet UK account below

  • Login

Will not be displayed with your comment

By signing up for this service, you indicate that you agree to our Terms and Conditions and have read and understood our Privacy Policy. Questions about membership? Find the answers in the Community FAQ

Get ZDNet UK's daily newsletter

Enter your email address to sign up

ZDNet UK Live

Dennis Nilsson

If we allow corporate interest to dictate the way our government circumvents due process against foreign entities then we should accept the same...

37 minutes ago by Dennis Nilsson via Facebook on ACTA stumbles in Germany
GHar123

I totally dislike pirating of works, I fear that artists will be deterred from creating works if they think that they are going to get ripped off....

2 hours ago by GHar123 on ACTA stumbles in Germany
JCB33

How dare film makers, artists or anybody that invests in creativity stop us pirating their works for free. I want to be able to walk into my local...

8 hours ago by JCB33 on ACTA stumbles in Germany
Moley

@GrueMaster. I prefer horses for courses rather than one size fits all. I, and I suspect most other computer users, do not really wish to have...

10 hours ago by Moley on A tale of two distros: Ubuntu and Linux Mint
greycynic

The product that scares me every time I have to use it is the Office 2007 version of Excel. The first bug that I found was applying the median...

10 hours ago by greycynic on Ten flawed products that derail productivity
GrueMaster

Nice review and very informative. One thing I'd like to add (in reply to whs001's 1st question), the main reason to have the same interface from...

12 hours ago by GrueMaster on A tale of two distros: Ubuntu and Linux Mint
Frederick Wrigley

I'be been using Mint 12 since the RC came out, and I am far more happy with the Cinnamon, the Mate, and, yes (with extensions), theGnome 3...

12 hours ago by Frederick Wrigley via Facebook on A tale of two distros: Ubuntu and Linux Mint
bdantas

Excellent article. One small correction, though--although a fresh installation of Linux Mint 12 will, indeed, provide the user with a version of...

13 hours ago by bdantas on A tale of two distros: Ubuntu and Linux Mint
Alan Ralph

In related news, the ISPs club together to get the members of the Home Affairs Select Committee (ya goofed on that part, ZDNet UK) copies of "The...

14 hours ago by Alan Ralph via Facebook on MPs urge ISPs to take down terrorist material
Alan Ralph

In related news, the ISPs club together to get the members of the Home Affairs Select Committee (ya goofed on that part, ZDNet UK) copies of "The...

14 hours ago by Alan Ralph via Facebook on MPs urge ISPs to take down terrorist material
Moley

For Gnome 2 die-hards, it is possible to add icons to the bottom panel (or top top panel, if you prefer) which provide the exact Gnome 2...

14 hours ago by Moley on A tale of two distros: Ubuntu and Linux Mint
ramwellian

Your comments would seem pretty naive and immature. Your 'solution' appears to be, "gee, let's all just give in to the hackers and give them...

15 hours ago by ramwellian on Cloud computing security: no more oxymoron?
BugStalker

"Interesting thought ... If you installed Win7 as a dual boot on a machine that previously only had Linux, and it wrecked your Linux installation,...

15 hours ago by BugStalker on Windows 7 Declares War on GRUB
whs001

This is an excellent summary of Ubuntu and Mint and the interface differences between them. Most such articles take a very partisan position for...

15 hours ago by whs001 on A tale of two distros: Ubuntu and Linux Mint
Moley

@ewallace. Not so clear. Anyone can obtain the text, for example from here http://www.ustr.gov/webfm_send/2379. I support ACTA so long as it and...

15 hours ago by Moley on ACTA: Facts, misconceptions and questions
45283

I think WinRT is fantastic. I just wish it was an option for people that didn't want to go through Microsoft's App Store with its attendant...

18 hours ago by 45283 on Why Windows 8 needs architectural hygiene for WOA
Burn-IT

Nine people? £30m? Who's back pocket is that lot going in? And IF they say it is for new buildings, what about all the ones the government has...

19 hours ago by Burn-IT on Police set to launch three £30m e-crime hubs
ewallace

Just to be clear, nobody knows what is in the text of ACTA, here is a photograph of the text of ACTA http://twitpic.com/8h9iju as submitted to the...

20 hours ago by ewallace on ACTA: Facts, misconceptions and questions
fgvrg56

Unfortunately main issue is that ASUS is refusing to accept that they make some mistake on this version of asus Transformer prime. 1 - GPS sensor...

21 hours ago by fgvrg56 on Asus Eee Pad Transformer Prime Wi-Fi & GPS problems?
Ben Woods

@Marcus A fair question. Just talked with Archos which said it was working on an announcement for next week....

22 hours ago by Ben Woods on Archos confirms G9 Ice Cream Sandwich update schedule

Latest in Application Development