The hopes of X3D backers are riding on developments that have created a more conducive environment for 3D on the Web, including improved bandwidth and computing power, significant improvements in the underlying schema, and support from other standards bodies. Parisi, who recently launched Media Machines in San Francisco to provide tools and consulting to Web sites using X3D content, said the new 3D standard improves on VRML's unwieldy size and structure. X3D comes in a modular structure built around a small playback engine, in contrast to its predecessor. While VRML weighed in at a cumbersome 2.5MB, the smallest part of the component-based X3D specification is a comparatively lithe 300KB. The specification also describes three profiles, or common configurations, of X3D modules. The first, Interchange, is responsible for geometry and animation and for exchanging data between authoring tools. The next level, Interactive, adds to the Interchange profile interaction with elements in a 3D page, such as mouse-overs and click-throughs. The third profile, Extensibility, lets 3D authors create X3D components and link their applications to databases and other outside sources of information. Those familiar with the proposed standard said X3D provides a more complete base than VRML that developers can extend without fragmenting the core specification -- a problem that stymied VRML, said analyst Jon Peddie, a principal with Jon Peddie Research. Other forces that could help X3D include growing support from other standards groups. Notably, the influential Moving Picture Experts Group (MPEG) agreed to include X3D in MPEG-4, an emerging standard for digital video and audio. Since the use of MPEG-4 has been held up by a licensing quagmire, however, that road to the specification's success remains uncertain. Backers point to a third catalyst that might finally ignite the 3D market: the use of advanced graphics in operating systems. "We're still constructing the applications that use 3D all day every day," said W3D Consortium president Neil Trevett, a vice president at graphics-card maker 3DLabs. "You'll start to see that kind of application when the OS begins to use elements of advanced graphics, including 3D. It's just like moving to a graphical user interface from the old command-line prompts; after the operating systems did that, the applications followed." Trevett said that process had already begun, albeit at the early stages. For example, Microsoft's PowerPoint application running on the company's Windows XP operating system is "the first time a mainstream corporate application begins to use advanced graphics," Trevett said. "Pretty soon, even your desktop is going to be graphics-accelerated." The Microsoft card
X3D backers point to Microsoft, with its command of the Web browser market, as a potential spoiler. Should the software giant provide built-in support for X3D in Internet Explorer, it would pave the way for broad acceptance by eliminating the need for an extra download. Conversely, its refusal would only hurt the budding standard. Microsoft declined to comment. Close observers of the 3D market said the company would hold its cards close to its vest with respect to X3D while it waited for strategic factors to clarify themselves. "The reason you can't get a straight answer out of Microsoft is that it still struggles with the question of supporting open standards versus using proprietary software," said one analyst, who asked not to be identified. "They are an obstacle to this happening because they're trying to get a proprietary edge on it. They're having the same problem with MPEG-4. They won't support an open standard until they're forced by the market to do it." Microsoft has a troubled past when it comes to Web graphics technologies. Its Chromeffects initiative to bring DirectX-style graphics to Web pages was shelved in 1998. Bits and pieces of it were later released in the company's Internet Explorer Web browser. Like any open standard, X3D faces competition from proprietary alternatives that could make their way to market unhindered by the perennial, painstaking search for consensus, which lies at the heart of the standards process. Companies hawking 3D software for the Web include Adobe Systems, Macromedia, WildTangent and Viewpoint, formerly MetaStream. In the face of these comparatively fleet competitors, X3D backers say, the standardised approach has some built-in advantages. "Standards offer the promise that you have multiple vendors creating tools and reusable content," Parisi said. "If done right, there's a whole economy that can spring up around it. Look what exploded around HTML. That happened because everyone could use it and nobody owned it. It's the same with XML." That said, the W3D acknowledges that some 3D applications -- multiplayer games, for example -- are likely to remain the province of proprietary software. Silicon Graphics, which contributed the original VRML code from its Open Inventor 3D visualisation product, has largely abandoned the Web 3D market in favour of a system of closed "visual area networks" for sharing 3D models. The company shuttered its 3D subsidiary, Cosmo, in 1998. But SGI, which still supports VRML in some products, hasn't ruled out giving the Internet another chance. "VRML and the structure of the Web were not set up to interact with large models," said Janet Matsuda, director of marketing at SGI. "But we see (visual area networks) going toward the Internet." Web3D is itself a member of the World Wide Web Consortium (W3C), the premier Web standards body, and is touting X3D's close integration with W3C technologies. W3C recommendations employed by X3D include the Document Object Model, which lets authors manipulate elements of an XML document using scripts; XML itself; and the W3C's recommendation for handling two-dimensional graphics on the Web, Scalable Vector Graphics. Looking ahead, the group plans to employ the Synchronized Multimedia Integration Language, or SMIL, for synchronising 3D elements with other media types. Now that the Web3D Consortium has issued its draft, it will solicit feedback before submitting the specification to the ISO in August. An ISO standardisation could come as early as next year. One analyst predicted success for X3D, saying the technology and demand for it had finally come up to speed. "There is a genuine pent-up demand for this stuff," analyst Peddie said. "What's out there now is primitive and not very satisfying, but that's partly because the people putting them out have to develop them from scratch. If they could get the same level of support and functionality with 3D that they do with XML, you would see amazing new developments."
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