Through partnerships with companies such as Motorola, Vodafone and Nokia, Sun has succeeded in spreading Java to an area where its longtime rival, Microsoft, is comparatively weak. Sun's revenue comes chiefly from selling large server computers, not from its software arm. But the company does derive millions of dollars from licensing Java and from related development tools and software. There is still plenty of room for competition -- and consumer choice -- because the market is young. Comparatively few people use their mobile phones yet for much more than talking, particularly in the United States. Currently, just slightly more than 1 percent of the $73.5bn in revenue that mobile phone carriers collect in the United States comes from transferring data, Waryas said. However, IDC projects the figure will rise to about 17 percent to 20 percent of a $135bn market in 2006. Technologies such as Java or BREW are "absolutely essential" for mobile phone service companies looking for a way to tap other revenue sources besides regular phone calls, Waryas said. And Java has a "major lead" in the mobile phone market, he noted. Since its introduction in September 2000, MIDP has swept across the mobile phone landscape. Nokia, the largest maker of mobile phones, expects to sell about 10 million mobile phones this year that can run Java programs. MIDP has become a fertile garden for other Java developments as well. For example, there are projects under way to extend MIDP with 3D graphics, better audio and video and the ability to tap into information about the location of the cell phone customer. Companies such as Nokia like the Java realm because companies can participate in its development, Waryas said. In the PC world, many companies are relegated to the role of mere assembler while Intel and Microsoft reap many of the profits. Companies "want to take an active role. They don't want to become a white-box manufacturer," Waryas said, referring to generic PCs with standard parts and no brand name. Splintering possible
But not everything has been rosy among Java developers. In-Fusio, which makes games for mobile phones, participates in the development of the new MIDP release but saw its proposal for a MIDP Java game standard rejected in a vote by the Java community members. That rejection raises the possibility that companies will continue to use proprietary extensions to Java, not technology developed through the Java Community Process (JCP), through which Sun and others govern the future of Java. That may split what could be a unified effort, said In-Fusio chief technology officer Thomas Lanspurg. "Currently, there is no specific work done inside the JCP to solve this issue. And this may generate in the future a result where people (like us) have to find a solution by themselves outside standards and generate more fragmentation," he said in an email interview. "Fragmentation" is a loaded word in the computer industry, bringing to mind the ultimately unsuccessful attempts to unify the world surrounding the Unix operating system, which led to a divided Unix market and customer confusion. And it's a particularly sensitive concept for Java, which Sun emblasoned with the "write once, run anywhere" mantra promising universality. Sun and Java have faced this challenge before, as with server versions of Java from BEA Systems and others that include extensions that can prevent a program from running on a competitor's version of Java. In response, Sun is creating an Application Verification Kit that ensures a Java program can run in different companies' Java environments. Microsoft, naturally, seizes on the fragmentation issue and argues that it is Sun's fault. Sun tried to create a Java version for devices with little processor power and memory, but the customers who will be interested in the services Java can provide will also be the ones who buy fancier mobile phones or other wireless gadgets with much more processing power. Mobile phone manufacturers responded to Sun's "lowest common denominator" approach by adding proprietary extensions for jobs outside Java's domain, such as initiating phone calls, said David Rasmussen, lead product manager for Microsoft's .Net Mobile Platform, a software product expected by the end of this year for running complex programs on small devices. "The .Net framework...has a powerful enough base to work with that you can develop interesting applications and avoid this fragmentation," Rasmussen said. "We think it's short-sighted to bet on a low-level capability when the devices are going to get up to a reasonable level of capability very quickly." Talk like that has analysts wondering how long Java will maintain its lead in the mobile phone market. "Microsoft is the big sleeping giant in the industry," Waryas said. "I wouldn't say they're late because the market hasn't developed yet."
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