The march of Linux in the enterprise

Linux's Impact on the Operating System Landscape
Strategic Planning Assumptions:

• By 2006, Linux will possess 70 percent of the performance and functionality available from Unix (0.8 probability).
• By 2008, 80 percent of the functionality layered above the Unix kernel will migrate to Linux (0.8 probability).

The next five years will bring big changes in how platform and operating systems are viewed. Linux can potentially affect dozens of markets, technologies and vendors, depending on its continued evolution.

Gartner provides a judgment, based on the best of our continuing coverage of the market, of the likelihood of Linux affecting specific areas (see Figure 1).

Novell/SUSE vs. Red Hat
Strategic Planning Assumptions: Novell/SUSE will erode Red Hat's market dominance in the United States by 30 percent and gain market share against Red Hat in Europe by the first quarter of 2005 (0.7 probability).

Red Hat is the clear frontrunner in North America, but in January 2004, Novell completed the acquisition of SUSE Linux. That will likely change the balance of power as Novell throws the full weight of its rich software stack, channel partners and consulting services behind the Linux distribution. Although Novell will continue to support Red Hat, Novell's acquisition of SUSE opens up greater choices for customers. Until now, Red Hat has had first port and exclusive partnering relationships, but that is changing.

The enterprise market is clearly down to two vendors, although in selected circumstances, such as geographic regions, embedded and desktop systems, other vendors are potential options. Those vendors include Debian, Mandrake, Red Flag, TurboLinux, Conectiva and MontaVista. More important is the ability for any distributor to scale resources, increase revenue and skew the business model toward other value-added products and services, especially at a time when cost-conscious customers are cutting and trimming budgets.

That is why the acquisition by Novell is important. It represents the further commercialisation of Linux among large vendors. Gartner recommends that customers consider both the Novell and Red Hat options as Novell integrates the SUSE organisation and drives more ISV loyalty.

Red Hat's strengths include:

Red Hat's challenges include:

SUSE's strengths include:

SUSE's challenges include:

Action Item: Customers should evaluate Red Hat and Novell/SUSE, because each has clear strengths and weaknesses. Even though most of the kernel code base is identical, many applications, value-added products, partner relationships and quality-of-service issues exist that differentiate them.

Vendor Linux Strategies and Programs
Strategic Imperative: Vendors have widely varying Linux strategies and programs that may affect customer project experiences with Linux. Customers should understand the differences before engaging a vendor.

Gartner tracks the progress of key vendors that support Linux (see Figure 2). The scores have remained constant with the exception of Novell's addition (10=best, 1=worst):

• IBM is consistently strong across all categories. It uses financial power and incentives to get architectural support and ISV ports. IBM aggressively pursues all markets, including Windows. It uses Linux to generate new software opportunities. (Weighted average: 8.0)
• Hewlett-Packard (HP) has made much progress toward a cohesive strategy. Resources and investment are more focused. While not at the overall commitment and investment of IBM, HP presents significant vendor initiatives and services. (Weighted average: 7.3)
• Novell/SUSE is the latest entry in the evaluation with a relatively good start in rating, attributable to the SUSE and Ximian acquisitions. Novell's high platform score is attributed to SUSE's versatility in supporting multiple architectures. (Weighted average: 4.9)
• Sun Microsystems Linux x86 platforms have failed to impress people and Opteron is Sun's next foray. Sun seems more motivated on the desktop with StarOffice/Java. Some customers still express skepticism about Sun's overall strategy. (Weighted average: 3.6)
• Dell has had some success in a market it has had to learn, but it is not yet persuasive in delivering the integration demanded of a Unix-like system, even though it achieved a considerable boost from Oracle's co-partnering for 9iRAC. (Weighted average: 2.8)

Action Item: The Gartner evaluation matrix — based on a weighted scale in terms of best (10) to worst (1) — can help customers evaluate the positioning of some major platform vendors for Linux.

Tiered Services Strategy
Strategic Imperative: Enterprises planning widespread Linux deployments but afraid of escalating subscription costs should consider adopting a tiered services strategy that matches service contracts and providers to platform roles.

How the enterprise configures its Linux support arrangements is dependent on its in-house administration skills, experience with the open source community and its need for consistent and timely upgrades. The options are:

• Do your own support with a free generic version.
• Do your own support but seek incidence support from third parties.
• Seek a basic support contract with a distribution vendor.
• Seek advanced operating system support from a Linux distribution vendor or third party that encompass applications and the database.
• Seek advanced all-level support from system vendors like the platform supplier (with co-support arrangements back to the operating system distributor).

How support contracts are shaped will be one of the most important contributing factors to attaining TCO. Note: generic versions are usually supported by an open source community.

Linux Support Costs
Strategic Imperative: Enterprises should develop a competitive negotiation strategy that calibrates the trade-off between single-vendor operating system deployments with less leverage vs. multi-operating system competitive negotiations at potentially more operational support costs.

Linux support costs are escalating with configuration complexity (see Figure 3). While customers are willing to pay fair market pricing for fair value received, many customers express resentment and even anger at the perceived high costs of enterprise Linux.

Part of the anger is based on the need for multiple support contracts: one with the Linux distributor and one with a platform vendor. Without the option of consolidating support, and with the operating system being broken out separately, which diffuses the lines of responsibility, the subscription costs for just the operating system is considered inflationary.

Many customers are just emerging from experiences with Linux in the infrastructure and Web areas, where subscription support fees were relatively low — for example, one online investment trading firm aims at no Linux server operating system fees above $100. Consequently, the resentment has risen on new subscription support fees that can run from $800 to as high as $3,000 per server, depending on configuration, technology and support coverage. That fee includes primarily the errata and security patches related to the operating system.

More often, when a customer has a more in-depth and complex issue, answers to queries arrive late, not at all or are shifted to another vendor's responsibility.

Guidance on the SCO Lawsuit
Tactical Guideline: Demand that specific details are made publicly available that characterise alleged violations, and rally a team — comprised of the CIO, legal and IS executives — to monitor proceedings and prepare responses if they are required.

In any correspondence with SCO, Gartner recommends that enterprises do the following:

• Respond with a polite but firm acknowledgment asking for comprehensive details and judicial proof on infringement claims.
• Do not divulge details of internal Linux deployments.
• Until a judgment in the case is rendered, do not pay SCO licence fees.
• Do not permit SCO to perform an audit.
• Ask your legal counsel to monitor developments and understand infringement claims.
• Pressure high-profile Linux vendors for contractual guarantees of solutions that protect Linux against infringement claims by covering court costs.
• Evaluate HP and Novell terms and conditions behind their indemnities.
• Perform an asset and configuration analysis, and fence off "innocuous". Linux deployments (such as network-edge solutions) from performance-intensive ones.
• Where feasible, delay deployment of high-performance systems to monitor SCO's next move against the Linux user community.
• Develop contingency platform plans in case SCO wins and requires the Linux kernel to be substantially changed.

Many enterprises have received letters from SCO inviting them to meet and negotiate a license fee arrangement for copyright infringement for allegedly running SCO code within the Linux operating system. Gartner's guidance is that enterprises should merely acknowledge receipt of the letter. A CIO or legal counsel should draft a letter acknowledging receipt but with a request for specific detailed information on the alleged violation.

Typical phrasing might request:

It is not advisable that IS organisations publicly describe the details of the installed configurations. However, all customers should have the IS organisation complete a thorough audit of all installations, ensure that the legal department understands the history of the lawsuit, and responds to SCO through the CIO, legal department or another senior officer.

The IS organisation should perform a risk/benefit analysis that reflects the costs and probabilities of resisting SCO's entreaties for payment of a license fee. Factors to consider are:
-The probability of SCO winning big, settling or losing all.
-The probability of the enterprise or institution being summoned to court.
-The use of indemnity support contracts as an option.
-The server role and infringement.
-The penalty in bowing to SCO's demands for licence fees on top of GNU General Public License for all current and future deployments and SCO's control of the licence fee.
-The probability that any offending code is minor and changeable.
-The contingency that a non-Linux platform option is available.

Bottom Line

In 2004 to 2006, widen the expansion of Linux to larger applications, and extend into database back-end systems through 2008.

Research Products This article is an excerpt of a chapter from a new report, "Creating a Best-in-Class Data Center: Server and Storage Management Technologies and Best Practices." The report is an offering of the Gartner Strategic Planning Series Reports, a business venture of Gartner Press that provides buyers with comprehensive guides to today's hottest IT topics. For information about buying the report or others in the Strategic Planning Series program, go to www.gartner.com/executivereports.