At the time, the market for Web services technology, which links software programs, was largely undeveloped. Gartner forecasted that industry giants such as IBM, Microsoft and Oracle, while strong in tools and servers, would be weak in one area: Web services management.
Now, a glut of Web services management companies are competing to be part of Web services applications that are becoming increasingly popular within big companies. Many smaller, specialised management tool players, like Infravio and AmberPoint, could be on a collision course with industry heavyweights that are now intent on being full-service providers.
Other established companies in the field include Confluent Software, Digital Evolution, Flamenco Networks, Actional and Blue Titan Software, each of which focuses on specific areas of Web services, such as delivering messages or monitoring Extensible Markup Language documents.
Analysts say the market is in such a state of flux, it's unclear which of those companies have the best long-term prospects, given all the variables, including management, funding and customers. Managers of those start-ups expect that two or three will survive an anticipated shakeout. Analysts say those companies that do survive will need to stay several steps ahead of established companies, as they muscle into Web services management.
"We definitely see [that] 2004 will be make-or-break for all new entrants," said Jason Bloomberg, an analyst at Web services research company ZapThink. "A couple of those [management] companies might survive, but five years down the road, they will be different companies."
The industry heavyweights are staking out their claims. Computer Associates International, which has a large presence in the more general systems management software market, is moving aggressively into Web services, as is Hewlett-Packard, which has made Web services part of its Adaptive Enterprise push.
