2002: the top ten in IT hype

ANALYSIS

A big part of technology marketing is based upon pure hyperbole because the industry is selling science, and science happens to be -- for many people -- a nebulous topic. So combine the nature of science with aggressive sales tactics, and what do you get? Hype. As 2002 comes to a close, here are my picks for the year's top 10 most overhyped technologies and marketing messages. No. 10: Web services This was a tough call for me. I truly believe Web services will improve application development and integration and has the potential to change the way companies use software. Even so, the technology still remains very immature. XML (Extensible Markup Language) is a good foundation for standards, but data definitions and business semantics remain a battleground. Web services also suffer from a lack of application-level security. In spite of these technical limitations, Microsoft, Sun Microsystems, IBM and others promote Web services as one of the "Seven Wonders of the World." Information technology managers aren't fooled. They may tinker with the technology for internal applications, but they understand that the glorious vision of Web services nirvana is nothing but hype. No. 9 CRM Customer relationship management will go down as one of the last of the "bloatware" application suites to be replaced by much more efficient -- and elegant -- software components. In theory, the CRM concept makes sense: Use customer data to understand behavior and implement applications that help provide better customer services. But you still need a couple of things to succeed: people and business processes. Now that's a novel concept! Imagine what would happen if chief information officers first worked on fixing the business processes and training people, and then figured out what technology is needed to support this effort. Siebel Systems, SAP or Oracle wouldn't like this too much. I noticed that as 2002 progressed, CRM hyperbole and interest waned. Let's hope this trend continues. No. 8: "Oracle 9i: Can't break it" Claims that Oracle 9i is unbreakable sound a lot like the claims made about the unsinkable Titanic. In February, Oracle 9i ran into its own iceberg when British security researcher David Litchfield found numerous security holes, including common buffer overflows and even a flaw that gave hackers administrative access to the entire database. Oracle then released patches to fix the holes, a clear admission that Oracle 9i was not unbreakable. Oracle's dedication to security is a good thing, but using security to hype its marketing messages is a really, really bad thing. It misleads customers and provides a challenge to hackers and script kiddies. No sane IT manager wants that. No. 7: Security fear, uncertainty and doubt In a capitalist society, threats to security (demand) lead to security products (supply). To gain attention, suppliers quote statistics with the sole purpose of scaring the pants off prospective buyers: "In 2001, more than 30 vulnerabilities were discovered each week." "Code Red infected 250,000 systems in less than 10 hours." "Insiders perpetrate approximately 50 percent to 75 percent of all security events," and so on. To say that hackers constitute a threat is as obvious as a bumper sticker that reads, "Mean people suck." Message to the security industry: Business and IT executives understand they have security problems and are willing to spend money to fix the problem. Quit the scare hype: We get it. No.6: 10Gb Ethernet Early in 2002, boosters predicted this technology would take off once the 10Gb Ethernet standard got ratified. That took place in June, and hardly anyone noticed. Here's why: A typical 1-gigabit backbone runs at below 20 percent utilisation. Meanwhile, the Internet protocol (IP) services that were supposed to drive the need for speed -- such as IP telephony, video and content networking -- remain dot-com vaporware. Aside from this, ILECs (incumbent local exchange carriers) are sitting on their SONET/SDH base. (The US has SONET, synchronous optical network, while Europe has synchronous digital hierarchy, mature and reliable optical networks that happily carry other protocols) Meanwhile, the CLECs, DLECs and BLECs have disappeared faster than you can say LEC. Does this mean that we won't hear any more hype from the networking crowd? No way. They've already moved on to MPLS (multi-protocol label switching), wireless, and a host of similarly geeky subjects. No. 5: iSCSI This was supposed to be the year when Fibre Channel storage area networking technology would start its inevitable decline as it got elbowed aside by iSCSI. But as we're about to enter 2003, iSCSI is still a solution looking for a problem. Want proof? Cisco Systems, the reigning king of iSCSI hype announced its own family of storage switches this past year that support (guess what?) Fibre Channel only. Users can expect iSCSI to ease its way on to the scene in 2003, and the technology truly does have some promise. But don't expect any more hype about the death of Fibre Channel. Like everything else in the tech world, we'll add new technologies like iSCSI but continue to purchase, operate and maintain the old stuff as well. No. 4: IBM's eLiza, Sun Microsystems' N1, Hewlett-Packard's Utility Data Centre All these vendor visions of self-configuring, self-healing, self-managing data centres sound like brain surgery or rocket science to me. Haven't Computer Associates, Tivoli Systems and BMC Software been trying to do this for years? The vendors say this time it's different, because they'll control the technology themselves and get partner buy-in. I'm sure Cisco, Oracle and EMC are giddy with excitement at the opportunity to support three different management schemes. On the off chance that this isn't hype, I hope that the next project from IBM, Sun or HP is a self-configuring, self-healing, self-managing car. I'd rather sleep than actually drive. No. 3: Storage management software The storage market is crowded, and both revenue and margins are way down. Did these hardships humble storage sellers? Not a bit. Instead they shifted their attention from hardware to software hype, claiming that the new challenge for users was managing distributed storage devices. The floodgates opened as companies such as IBM, HP, Sun, EMC, BMC Software, CA and Veritas Software introduced products with goofy names like AutoIS and WideSky and a bevy of new buzz terms like virtualisation, utilisation and automation. So what happened? Almost nothing. Software providers got self-involved in API-swapping, standard-setting, and name-calling, while storage users ignored the whole thing. Note to the storage industry: IT managers aren't doing back flips about adding yet another overhyped and underperforming management tool. Don't get your hopes up that things will change. No. 2: The tech recovery Hyperbole around the tech recovery was as loud in January as it is in December. All of the investment and industry analysts jumped in with their two cents' worth. At the beginning of the year, they said the recovery was likely in the third or fourth quarter. Now analysts say not to expect a recovery until late 2003 at the earliest. They say that only a fool is certain, and that's for sure. I guess that makes me a fool for saying so, but I believe that the slowdown in tech spending will be with us a long, long time. Hype around the tech recovery is likely to make this list again at the end of 2003, 2004 and beyond. No. 1: ROI Now that IT budgets are tight, the same companies who claimed that they could help customers drive revenue in the new economy are now saying that their products will help lower IT cost and increase productivity. Each one has a spreadsheet model or an "independent" analyst case study on hand to back up the claim. I recently heard of an IT manager who told the CIO he wanted to buy a product because it could save the department $75,000. The CIO agreed, but only if the manager agreed to cut his budget by $75,000. Needless to say, the manager decided to pass. The hype around "return on investment" (ROI) is laughable at best and completely unethical at worst. Hey, if the technology industry eliminates its ROI hype, it can reduce head count, cut marketing and advertising budgets and lower printing costs. Now that's real ROI. Jon Oltsik is a founder and principal at Hype-Free Consulting, a research and consulting firm.

For a weekly round-up of the enterprise IT news, sign up for the Enterpise newsletter. Tell us what you think in the Enterprise Mailroom.

Post your comment

In order to post a comment you need to be registered and logged in.

You can also log in with Facebook. Log in or create your ZDNet UK account below

By signing up for this service, you indicate that you agree to our Terms and Conditions and have read and understood our Privacy Policy. Questions about membership? Find the answers in the Community FAQ

ZDNet UK Live

I totally dislike pirating of works, I fear that artists will be deterred from creating works if they think that they are going to get ripped off....

60 minutes ago by GHar123 on ACTA stumbles in Germany

How dare film makers, artists or anybody that invests in creativity stop us pirating their works for free. I want to be able to walk into my local...

7 hours ago by JCB33 on ACTA stumbles in Germany

@GrueMaster. I prefer horses for courses rather than one size fits all. I, and I suspect most other computer users, do not really wish to have...

9 hours ago by Moley on A tale of two distros: Ubuntu and Linux Mint

The product that scares me every time I have to use it is the Office 2007 version of Excel. The first bug that I found was applying the median...

9 hours ago by greycynic on Ten flawed products that derail productivity

Nice review and very informative. One thing I'd like to add (in reply to whs001's 1st question), the main reason to have the same interface from...

10 hours ago by GrueMaster on A tale of two distros: Ubuntu and Linux Mint

I'be been using Mint 12 since the RC came out, and I am far more happy with the Cinnamon, the Mate, and, yes (with extensions), theGnome 3...

11 hours ago by Frederick Wrigley via Facebook on A tale of two distros: Ubuntu and Linux Mint

Excellent article. One small correction, though--although a fresh installation of Linux Mint 12 will, indeed, provide the user with a version of...

12 hours ago by bdantas on A tale of two distros: Ubuntu and Linux Mint

In related news, the ISPs club together to get the members of the Home Affairs Select Committee (ya goofed on that part, ZDNet UK) copies of "The...

12 hours ago by Alan Ralph via Facebook on MPs urge ISPs to take down terrorist material

In related news, the ISPs club together to get the members of the Home Affairs Select Committee (ya goofed on that part, ZDNet UK) copies of "The...

12 hours ago by Alan Ralph via Facebook on MPs urge ISPs to take down terrorist material

For Gnome 2 die-hards, it is possible to add icons to the bottom panel (or top top panel, if you prefer) which provide the exact Gnome 2...

13 hours ago by Moley on A tale of two distros: Ubuntu and Linux Mint

Your comments would seem pretty naive and immature. Your 'solution' appears to be, "gee, let's all just give in to the hackers and give them...

13 hours ago by ramwellian on Cloud computing security: no more oxymoron?

"Interesting thought ... If you installed Win7 as a dual boot on a machine that previously only had Linux, and it wrecked your Linux installation,...

14 hours ago by BugStalker on Windows 7 Declares War on GRUB

This is an excellent summary of Ubuntu and Mint and the interface differences between them. Most such articles take a very partisan position for...

14 hours ago by whs001 on A tale of two distros: Ubuntu and Linux Mint

@ewallace. Not so clear. Anyone can obtain the text, for example from here http://www.ustr.gov/webfm_send/2379. I support ACTA so long as it and...

14 hours ago by Moley on ACTA: Facts, misconceptions and questions

I think WinRT is fantastic. I just wish it was an option for people that didn't want to go through Microsoft's App Store with its attendant...

17 hours ago by 45283 on Why Windows 8 needs architectural hygiene for WOA

Nine people? £30m? Who's back pocket is that lot going in? And IF they say it is for new buildings, what about all the ones the government has...

18 hours ago by Burn-IT on Police set to launch three £30m e-crime hubs

Just to be clear, nobody knows what is in the text of ACTA, here is a photograph of the text of ACTA http://twitpic.com/8h9iju as submitted to the...

18 hours ago by ewallace on ACTA: Facts, misconceptions and questions

Unfortunately main issue is that ASUS is refusing to accept that they make some mistake on this version of asus Transformer prime. 1 - GPS sensor...

20 hours ago by fgvrg56 on Asus Eee Pad Transformer Prime Wi-Fi & GPS problems?

@Marcus A fair question. Just talked with Archos which said it was working on an announcement for next week....

21 hours ago by Ben Woods on Archos confirms G9 Ice Cream Sandwich update schedule

Any update on this, considering the claimed "first week of February"?

22 hours ago by Marcus Karlsson via Facebook on Archos confirms G9 Ice Cream Sandwich update schedule

Featured white papers

Latest jobs

2002: the top ten in IT hype

Daily Newsletters

Topics

Related stories

Effective CRM: work in progress

Ten flawed products that derail productivity

Adobe relents on CS6 upgrade charges

Post your comment

ZDNet UK Live

Latest in Desktop Apps

Ten flawed products that derail productivity

Adobe relents on CS6 upgrade charges

Featured white papers

Latest jobs

Test Analyst - Business Intelligence /Data Warehousing

Test Analyst - Business Intelligence /Data Warehousing

Technical MI Manager - 50-60k - Leeds

Inside ZDNet UK

A tale of two distros: Ubuntu and Linux Mint

2012 Predictions: VCE FastPath, VI SAN Probe & Hadoop

BlackBerry Bold 9790

Case study: How cloud enables growth

Ten factors that make Ubuntu 11.10 a hit

Toshiba Portégé Z830-10P Review

BT's archive: Pictures from the vault

News & Analysis

Reviews

Blogs

Resources

About Us

Member Services

Special Features

Advertising Features

ZDNet UK / News and Analysis / Workspace IT / Desktop Apps

2002: the top ten in IT hype

Daily Newsletters

Topics

Related stories

Post your comment

Get ZDNet UK's daily newsletter

Enter your email address to sign up

ZDNet UK Live

Latest in Desktop Apps

Featured white papers

Latest jobs

Inside ZDNet UK

Resources

About Us

Member Services

Special Features

Advertising Features