The Day Ahead: Cisco puts face on economic slowdown

Daily Newsletters

Sign up to ZDNet UK's daily newsletter.

NEWS
Commentary: You know Cisco Systems was having a bad earnings day when the company's Web cast for its analyst conference call didn't work and the dial-in number produced sounds that sounded like an alien life form took it over. Perhaps that's fitting on a day when the networking giant broke its nearly seven-year string of meeting or beating Wall Street estimates. Only every investor on the planet wanted to hear Cisco chief executive John Chambers' outlook because the Nasdaq follows Cisco's lead. And like Cisco's conference call, which was derailed by a non-Cisco routing problem, there were plenty of glitches to go around in the second quarter. "Ladies and gentleman please continue to stand by. The Cisco conference call will resume shortly. Thank you for your patience." Investors are going to need a little patience. Once Cisco got its conference call on track, the company said it sees flat sequential growth for the next two quarters. Chief financail officer Larry Carter said Cisco sales in the third quarter will be "flat to down 5 percent" with the second quarter. Fourth-quarter sales will be flat with the third quarter "with some variability." Cisco's flat revenue forecast is everything Wall Street didn't want to hear. Although Cisco is trading near a 52-week low, no one on Wall Street had flat revenue growth baked into their valuation models. Analysts were expecting fiscal third-quarter revenue of $7.6bn and $8.3bn for the April and July quarters, respectively. Cisco's results put a face on a startling downturn in the economy. In November, Cisco -- a poster company for corporate excellence and hyper growth -- was bullish. By January, Chambers was talking down estimates and warning of a "challenging" second quarter. He noted that the economy switched off like a light switch. He wasn't kidding. Although Cisco's second-quarter miss wasn't a total shocker (shares slumped ahead of the report), the company did fall short of consensus estimates by a penny with earnings of 18 cents a share. The company's revenue was a big shocker. Due to an economic slowdown that appeared in the second week of December, Cisco reported revenue of $6.75bn, up 55 percent from a year ago but a meager increase of 4 percent sequentially. According to First Call, analysts were expecting sales of $7bn to $7.2bn, or a 10 percent sequential gain. A few years ago, Cisco made a big push into the telecommunications space to take on Nortel and Lucent. While that focus has boosted sales, it left Cisco vulnerable to capital spending fluctuations. The company's enterprise business is also taking a few knocks because manufacturing companies are in a recession, according to Chambers. Meanwhile, inventory at Cisco has doubled in just six months. Profit margins are going to take a hit as the company tries to move inventory with price cuts. And accounts receivables surged, indicating that Cisco was struggling to report sales as the quarter closed. Add it all up and it was a very un-Cisco-like quarter. Chambers said the company could grow at a 40 percent clip for the fiscal year, but it will be "more front-loaded than we would have liked". That might be putting it mildly -- Cisco's first-quarter results will carry the year. Chambers said the economic slowdown will take roughly two quarters to get over -- assuming the US malaise doesn't spread to other countries. Chambers was "cautiously optimistic" about a recovery. Analysts cut Cisco's projections for the rest of the fiscal year and handed out downgrades. But many analysts are still touting the company's long-term prospects. Stephen Koffler, an analyst First Union Securities, kept a "strong buy" rating on Cisco, but cut his earnings and revenue projections. Koffler said Cisco could see revenue acceleration in the October quarter, assuming the economy rebounds. Koffler wasn't alone. Deutsche Banc analyst James Wade kept a "strong buy" rating too, but admitted that banking on an economic rebound in two quarters may be a waste of time. "The visibility into the downturn is very limited and we would view it as difficult to pick a particular point of inflection," said Wade. "Nonetheless, when the economy rebounds, Cisco should continue to be the leader in the industry." But questions remain. Has Cisco seen the end of its glory days? Or is it a giant that'll use the downturn to gain market share as all good companies do? One thing is for sure -- even the mighty Cisco isn't bulletproof from an economic slowdown. Cisco will be cutting back on its spending, focusing on profitability instead of revenue growth and hunkering down just like the rest of the tech sector. See ZDII for US tech investor news. See techTrader for technology investment news, plus quotes and research. Have your say instantly, and see what others have said. Click on the TalkBack button and go to the techTrader forum Let the editors know what you think in the Mailroom. And read what others have said.

Post your comment

In order to post a comment you need to be registered and logged in.

You can also log in with Facebook. Log in or create your ZDNet UK account below

  • Login

Will not be displayed with your comment

By signing up for this service, you indicate that you agree to our Terms and Conditions and have read and understood our Privacy Policy. Questions about membership? Find the answers in the Community FAQ

Get ZDNet UK's daily newsletter

Enter your email address to sign up

ZDNet UK Live

JCB33

How dare film makers, artists or anybody that invests in creativity stop us pirating their works for free. I want to be able to walk into my local...

1 hour ago by JCB33 on ACTA stumbles in Germany
Moley

@GrueMaster. I prefer horses for courses rather than one size fits all. I, and I suspect most other computer users, do not really wish to have...

3 hours ago by Moley on A tale of two distros: Ubuntu and Linux Mint
greycynic

The product that scares me every time I have to use it is the Office 2007 version of Excel. The first bug that I found was applying the median...

3 hours ago by greycynic on Ten flawed products that derail productivity
GrueMaster

Nice review and very informative. One thing I'd like to add (in reply to whs001's 1st question), the main reason to have the same interface from...

5 hours ago by GrueMaster on A tale of two distros: Ubuntu and Linux Mint
Frederick Wrigley

I'be been using Mint 12 since the RC came out, and I am far more happy with the Cinnamon, the Mate, and, yes (with extensions), theGnome 3...

5 hours ago by Frederick Wrigley via Facebook on A tale of two distros: Ubuntu and Linux Mint
bdantas

Excellent article. One small correction, though--although a fresh installation of Linux Mint 12 will, indeed, provide the user with a version of...

6 hours ago by bdantas on A tale of two distros: Ubuntu and Linux Mint
Alan Ralph

In related news, the ISPs club together to get the members of the Home Affairs Select Committee (ya goofed on that part, ZDNet UK) copies of "The...

7 hours ago by Alan Ralph via Facebook on MPs urge ISPs to take down terrorist material
Alan Ralph

In related news, the ISPs club together to get the members of the Home Affairs Select Committee (ya goofed on that part, ZDNet UK) copies of "The...

7 hours ago by Alan Ralph via Facebook on MPs urge ISPs to take down terrorist material
Moley

For Gnome 2 die-hards, it is possible to add icons to the bottom panel (or top top panel, if you prefer) which provide the exact Gnome 2...

7 hours ago by Moley on A tale of two distros: Ubuntu and Linux Mint
ramwellian

Your comments would seem pretty naive and immature. Your 'solution' appears to be, "gee, let's all just give in to the hackers and give them...

8 hours ago by ramwellian on Cloud computing security: no more oxymoron?
BugStalker

"Interesting thought ... If you installed Win7 as a dual boot on a machine that previously only had Linux, and it wrecked your Linux installation,...

8 hours ago by BugStalker on Windows 7 Declares War on GRUB
whs001

This is an excellent summary of Ubuntu and Mint and the interface differences between them. Most such articles take a very partisan position for...

8 hours ago by whs001 on A tale of two distros: Ubuntu and Linux Mint
Moley

@ewallace. Not so clear. Anyone can obtain the text, for example from here http://www.ustr.gov/webfm_send/2379. I support ACTA so long as it and...

8 hours ago by Moley on ACTA: Facts, misconceptions and questions
45283

I think WinRT is fantastic. I just wish it was an option for people that didn't want to go through Microsoft's App Store with its attendant...

11 hours ago by 45283 on Why Windows 8 needs architectural hygiene for WOA
Burn-IT

Nine people? £30m? Who's back pocket is that lot going in? And IF they say it is for new buildings, what about all the ones the government has...

13 hours ago by Burn-IT on Police set to launch three £30m e-crime hubs
ewallace

Just to be clear, nobody knows what is in the text of ACTA, here is a photograph of the text of ACTA http://twitpic.com/8h9iju as submitted to the...

13 hours ago by ewallace on ACTA: Facts, misconceptions and questions
fgvrg56

Unfortunately main issue is that ASUS is refusing to accept that they make some mistake on this version of asus Transformer prime. 1 - GPS sensor...

14 hours ago by fgvrg56 on Asus Eee Pad Transformer Prime Wi-Fi & GPS problems?
Ben Woods

@Marcus A fair question. Just talked with Archos which said it was working on an announcement for next week....

15 hours ago by Ben Woods on Archos confirms G9 Ice Cream Sandwich update schedule
Marcus Karlsson

Any update on this, considering the claimed "first week of February"?

16 hours ago by Marcus Karlsson via Facebook on Archos confirms G9 Ice Cream Sandwich update schedule
apexwm

Bill Goodrich : Just as al_langevin pointed out, with Windows Server 2008 there is no Services for Macintosh anymore. It's gone, not available....

1 day ago by apexwm on Windows Server 2008 drops the ball for Mac compatibility