IDC has forecast a fairly steep growth rate -- within their market niche -- for tablets as a whole, thanks to the early acceptance of Microsoft's Windows XP Tablet PC Edition software. The research firm says tablet PC shipments this year will reach about 675,000 units, or roughly 5 percent of the overall notebook market in the United States, up from about 150,000 in last year. But Alan Promisel, an IDC analyst, is sceptical about the potential for micro tablets. Although some consumers have purchased tablet PCs, the majority of buyers are businesses. That means the micro tablet would be in line to replace traditional notebooks sold to businesses, he said. "I don't see a consumer buying something that small (the size a micro tablet). It's really a commercial PC," Promisel said. "We continue to see commercial purchases be depressed. It's improving slightly, but we haven't seen that jump in shipments." Gauging the demand for a micro tablet during the current economic situation, while PC sales are sputtering, will be tricky. Some of Toshiba's worries include providing enough processor power, long enough battery life and instant-on capabilities, whereby the device snaps to life quickly. A machine would also have to be able to run both current applications and future Microsoft Windows and Microsoft Office upgrades, Koenders said. Creative engineering can solve most of those issues, while customer resistance probably won't be too stiff, according to Intel. "People are beginning to develop an open mindedness (about input methods) based on keypads in phones and pagers" like the BlackBerry email device, MacDonald said. Intel, which has no plans to build the diminutive designs itself, will foster more experimentation with micro tablets by sharing the design with PC makers, MacDonald said. A computer based on the Intel micro tablet design could be carried like a PDA, allowing a person to jot notes or enter other information with a pen or even possibly type in data on a small on-screen keyboard. But the machine would also be able to work with a full-sized monitor and keyboard, just like any other notebook. The design could be morphed into a number of different devices, including a modular device that plugs into different chassis allowing it to switch jobs. Ambitions large and small
Meanwhile, PC makers are likely to offer a new generation of larger convertible tablet PCs by later this year. These new models will be built around 14-inch screens and will include more powerful processors such as the Intel Pentium M or Transmeta's forthcoming Crusoe TM8000, along with built-in wireless networking. Motion Computing, which, with ViewSonic and Fujitsu, was one of the few manufacturers to focus on a slate design for Windows XP Tablet PC Edition software, is likely to step up to the large screen as well, its executives indicated. But not everyone believes the market has to be divided between small and large. HP is searching for a jack of all trades that can fill the roll of both PDA and notebook with the Scout, which is larger than the micro tablet but comes with an 8.5-inch screen, a fold-down keyboard and a camera. The device, which measures 7 inches by 9.5 inches, also can accommodate plug-in modules, for adding an extra battery or GPS (Global Positioning System) features. Scout is still no more than the computing equivalent of a concept car. It was built for show only, but feedback from customers will probably mean that parts of the design show up in future tablets or in iPaq PDAs, company executives said. "The idea was to generate a concept vehicle around the concept of a 'tweener' -- something between an iPaq and a notebook," said Chris Landry, design center manager for strategic design and innovation at HP's Personal Systems Group. "For us, as designers, it allows us to get a pulse, a sense for where folks see their interests."
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