Supplies of other components could also tighten. Certain LCD panel sizes, high-end hard drives and even DVD burners could be harder to find in the fourth quarter.
"There's a little bit of a shortage right now on high-end components, so prices have pressured upward. We're seeing that on memory, LCDs and the higher-rpm hard drives. Also, DVD burners just aren't coming down as quickly," said Mike Stinson, vice president of Gateway's Mobile Products Group.
Gateway believes those prices will stabilise, but PC demand could continue to be stronger than expected in the fourth quarter, he said.
"Right now, we haven't changed our configuration plans for (the fourth quarter)," said Stinson. "But two weeks from now, that could be different."
LCD prices are expected to decline overall, but constraints on 15-inch LCD panels could affect some companies' plans. Prices on 15-inch panels will probably hold steady or increase, because those panels are likely to be in shorter supply than their larger 17-inch siblings, which are expected to decline in price, said Scott Gray, worldwide product marketing manager for LCD displays at HP.
Cost increases on 15-inch LCDs would put pressure manufacturers' plans for desktop-with-flat-panel bundles. But companies could turn to 14-inch panels. They could also tout inexpensive upgrades from 15-inch to 17-inch flat panels, Gray said.
Ultimately, the fourth quarter will end up as a three-way game of chicken among PC makers, component suppliers and consumers. If sales do not meet expectations, manufacturers will be forced to shift gears and drop prices, or risk drops in unit sales and profits.
"They're going to do what they need to do to hit their numbers," said Toni Duboise, an analyst with ARS.
