More than one billion PCs will be in use worldwide by the end of 2008, fuelled by high growth rates in emerging markets such as the Bric bloc of countries: Brazil, Russia, India and China.
The latest PC market figures from researcher Forrester also predict that while it has taken 27 years since the launch of the first desktop PC from IBM to pass this one billion mark, the next billion will be much faster — with global PC adoption passing two billion by 2015, a compound annual growth rate of 12.3 percent.
The majority of that future growth will come from the Bric countries, which will account for more than 775 million new PCs between them by 2015 as technology prices fall and personal incomes rise enough to open the market to millions of new users.
Forrester predicts there will be almost half a billion new PCs in use in China alone by 2015, compared to the 54 million PCs in use in the country today.
Simon Yates, Forrester vice president and research director, said in the report: "There is nothing more important to the long-term health of the technology industry — and personal technology in particular — than the ability to deliver relevant, accessible and affordable technology to the billions of people worldwide who have not been exposed to it."
There is also still room for some growth in mature PC markets. The Forrester report predicts 51 million new PCs in the US and Canada and 75 million new PCs in Western Europe.
The report applauds vendor initiatives such as AMD's 50x15, the Intel World Ahead programme, Microsoft Unlimited Potential and the One Laptop per Child $100 laptop project for increasing technology access in the developing world.
But Forrester said other major vendors such as HP and Lenovo also need to "step up" and get involved so the industry can scale production enough to deliver high volumes of PCs at a fifth of the cost to these markets.
Forrester's Worldwide PC Adoption Forecast to 2015 uses macroeconomic analysis of the 67 largest PC markets. The report does not distinguish between business and consumer use.
