"We know pretty much definitively that Longhorn is the next version of the Windows client," Gartenberg said. "Everything else goes downhill from there."
Things should become clearer next month when Microsoft offers an updated preview version of Longhorn at WinHEC, its Windows Hardware Engineering Conference, in Seattle. A more full-featured beta version has been promised by June.
What if you released an OS and no one came?
A lot has changed since Windows XP debuted in 2001. Wireless networking has become much more common, as have devices with Bluetooth. USB flash drives and other portable storage devices have essentially replaced the floppy disk, but they've brought along unique security issues.
Still, analysts say Windows XP has aged well, particularly with the Service Pack 2 upgrade that debuted last year and the Tablet and Media Centre editions that have seen several updates in recent years.
"I don't hear anyone saying 'I've got to have Longhorn tomorrow,'" said Yankee Group analyst Laura DiDio.
Of course, a lot of that may have to do with the fact that Microsoft has been very quiet in recent months. Some details about Longhorn have emerged, but they shed only a modest amount of light on what Microsoft will use as the key selling points for its operating system.
At its lowest level, Microsoft is building Longhorn using the same code as Windows Server 2003 Service Pack 1, which lets the software maker take advantage of the security enhancements it made with Windows XP Service Pack 2 — as well as the added support for 64-bit chips the company will debut next month, coincident with the release of SP1.
Microsoft has previewed two of the key technologies it has planned for Longhorn: its Avalon presentation engine and Indigo, its Web services architecture. Indigo is designed to let programs share data more easily, while Avalon should pave the way for programs that are more visually appealing . But most of the software that will take advantage of the technologies is not likely to arrive until sometime after Longhorn.
Talkback
How many people actually set out to buy XP in the first place? XP was installed by default on most new PCs, and people have bought a lot of PCs in the last 4 years.
I imagine Longhorn will be sold by exactly the same means, and Microsoft will claim it to be a resounding success.
In short. The idea of having your company go through some sort of total migration project once every three, four or five years to then cool things down for several years seems to be a thing of the past. Because now it looks like you'll either wait until all Microsoft phases are proven and keep what you have mostly until then. Or you jump through all the hoops each and every time Microsoft delivers the next phase while running most things in some sort of downwards compatibility mode in the mean time. Or you say bullocks to all that and start looking for lasting alternatives. In other words: there are though decisions to be made. Certainly at the company level.
If companies think that the above is worth a 7.6 on the security scale in favour of Microsoft then they either forget to have a detailed birds eye view over time or they're easily satisfied.
Given that, as usual, the promised benefits of migrating to Microsoft's latest and greatest (just not fully available just yet) are historicly proven never delivered at the very beginning but rather more or less at the end after huge investments have already been made. And it looks like significant time will pass between the first and final (complete) delivery of Longhorn. That way it could easily become a five, six year long total business commitment before the end results are in.
I haven't even upgraded to Svc pack 2 on xp.. why?
DRM and other "Shinanigans" MS is placing in
windows other than "upgrades". Longhorn is going
to be even worse on 3rd party developers etc. and
the era of free use on a PC is coming to an end because of MS. Buy Longhorn... NOT!!
Why use the DiDiot as a quote in any article? It is well known that the "Yankee Group" is a mouthpiece for Microsoft. You might as well say that "an MS PR company said..."
Yankee are about as independant of MS as the Inland Revenue are independant of the taxman!