The Day Ahead: Amid slide, CDNow reprices its stock options

Daily Newsletters

Sign up to ZDNet UK's daily newsletter.

NEWS
CDNow is quite busy these days explaining how the company has enough cash for now, how accountant concerns are old news, and how the company should be appreciated for its customer accounts and traffic growth. Maybe CEO Jason Olim and company would like to explain why CDNow repriced its issued and outstanding stock options at $5.625 (£3.54) on March 20. Employees, officers and members of the CDNow board hold the options, which are supposed to be an incentive to boost performance. If an employee has options with a strike price of $10 and the stock is at $20, that option holder pockets the difference. If an option strike price is above the actual share price, the options are worthless. CDNow execs were holding a lot of worthless options. So, instead of boosting company performance and the stock price, CDNow chose to lower the options bar. A passing mention about the repricing was found in CDNow's annual report. It wasn't immediately clear where the options were initially priced, but the company said they "were set at an exercise price greater than the closing price of CDNow common stock on March 20." Repricing options, which has had shareholder activists screaming for years, is the equivalent to a pat on the back for failure. Typically, a stock crumbles and a company reprices options so high-level execs can still cash in. Most repricing moves don't require shareholder approval. The repricing means CEO Olim will make out as long as CDNow shares break the $6 level. Not bad for a guy who has seen the company fall from an April 1998 peak of more than $35. Not bad for a guy who was stood up by Columbia House after the AOL Time Warner merger. And not bad for a guy who is the leader of the company that will be best known for being one of the first dot-com casualties. Shareholders would be peeved about the options repricing, if there wasn't a touch of black humour to the whole thing. CDNow execs can't reprice options fast enough. At Thursday's closing price of 3 13/16, CDNow’s repriced options are still underwater. What's CDNow really worth? Although the CDNow deathwatch is on, a few investors have concluded that CDNow shares may be a bargain. These investors think like this: CDNow has 3.5 million customers, a strong brand and lots of traffic. Given those stats, CDNow has to be valuable to somebody. In a serious case of damage control, CDNow said Thursday it reported 5.7 million unique visitors in February, and added that it attracted more visitors than Barnesandnoble.com. So what is CDNow really worth? CDNow has no warehouses or hard assets that can be easily valued. Instead you have to value the company based on customers, traffic and brand. Robertson Stephens analyst Lauren Cooks Levitan sums it up well. "High site traffic and a large customer following are not sufficient to drive a successful business," she said. We'll acknowledge that CDNow has a good brand in the music business. But a company could buy CDNow and do away with the brand. Does the buyer want to inherit all the public relations -- not to mention investor relations -- baggage CEO Olim has wrought? That leaves the CDNow customer list as the main asset. We reckon CDNow's 3.5 million customer list may be worth the company's $115m market capitalisation. These customers are also loyal and drive traffic. Counting customers But valuing CDNow's database is tricky. Amazon.com has the lowest customer acquisition costs in e-tailing, paying just $19 to acquire a customer. Using Amazon.com's figure, CDNow customers would be worth $66.5m. Toss in what's remaining of CDNow's cash and brand, the company might not get a premium even at its depressed market cap. That's admittedly a lowball offer. The problem with basing a takeout price on customer acquisition costs is no one can agree on what a customer is worth. Jupiter Communications said it doesn't track the figure because it can be skewed fancy accounting. Merrill Lynch reiterated Jupiter's comments. Most analysts, however, agree that average customer acquisition costs probably hover in the $40 to $50 range. Analysts said $100 for a customer is very high and Amazon.com's tally is very low. Using the $40-a-customer figure, CDNow's customers are worth $140m. The big question is whether music customers are more valuable than say, book customers and toy customers. And just because CDNow spent heavily to acquire customers doesn't mean its buyer will. Friedman Billings Ramsey analyst Robert Martin, who has been watching CDNow shares, figures CDNow will get $10 a share, or $300m, in a best-case scenario. Judging from my email, that figure will disappoint those loyal CDNow shareholders, especially those investors that failed to bail in time. The more likely scenario is that some company will buy out CDNow for $6 to $8 a share. As for the potential buyers, online e-tailers such as Barnesandnoble.com may be interested in CDNow to broaden reach. Brick-and-mortar retailers such as Tower Records could also bankroll CDNow. Content sites such as MTV.com could use CDNow to add more e-commerce. Toss eMusic and MP3.com into the mix too. "CDNow is a top five brand on the Web," said Martin. "You would think that would account for something." You'd think. What do you think? Tell the Mailroom. And read what others have said. See ZDII for US tech investor news. See techTrader for more technology investment news, plus quotes and research.

Post your comment

In order to post a comment you need to be registered and logged in.

You can also log in with Facebook. Log in or create your ZDNet UK account below

  • Login

Will not be displayed with your comment

By signing up for this service, you indicate that you agree to our Terms and Conditions and have read and understood our Privacy Policy. Questions about membership? Find the answers in the Community FAQ

Get ZDNet UK's daily newsletter

Enter your email address to sign up

ZDNet UK Live

BrownieBoy

> I'm told it's somewhat annoying when people have their Macs stolen > and Apple stores treat the thief as the owner, but there you go. Ouch,...

13 hours ago by BrownieBoy on AMD Ultrathins to challenge Intel Ultrabooks
Moley

@kevinmchapman. OK, I acknowledge that 'most' was a gratuitous throwaway comment as an afterthought and too presumptuous. As to proof, as you...

17 hours ago by Moley on A tale of two distros: Ubuntu and Linux Mint
Jack Schofield

@BrownieBoy > Works really well for thieves.... >> Nice attempt to deflect the argument by tossing in a point that's totally >> irrelevant, even...

18 hours ago by Jack Schofield on AMD Ultrathins to challenge Intel Ultrabooks
raskolnikof

fantastic that the so called piracy bills have been withdrawn. however, these anti-democracy supporters are still in the shadows so lets be alert...

19 hours ago by raskolnikof on SOPA, Protect IP support wavers in face of online protest
Tony Douglas

Please God no; teach them anything you like - thinking rationally, the uses and misuses of data, what data is and what it's not - but leave the...

21 hours ago by Tony Douglas via Facebook on Kids are the future. Teach ’em to code.
BrownieBoy

@Jack, > Works really well for thieves.... Nice attempt to deflect the argument by tossing in a point that's totally irrelevant, even it were...

1 day ago by BrownieBoy on AMD Ultrathins to challenge Intel Ultrabooks
bootlegger

Make that 13 people now - I got refused today at Manchester airport. I thought I was up to date on this legislation - I knew of the EU ruling from...

2 days ago by bootlegger on UK airport body scans will not be opt out
tinycg

Don't forget to check out apps like GoodReader or SlideShark either, they're indispensible for people on the go in presentation situations. Best...

2 days ago by tinycg on Four top iPad apps for people on the move
TerryRK

Well it seems there is something a number of us agree on. Why is the Ubuntu Unity launcher so ugly? I thought perhaps it was something to do with...

2 days ago by TerryRK on A tale of two distros: Ubuntu and Linux Mint
Freebies202

Duplicate comments are not made intentionally. Its very good to know that now you are keeping check on this problem because sometimes a commenter...

2 days ago by Freebies202 on Microsoft fixes blog comments, speeds up blogs with open source
kevinmchapman

"the very significant number of users" and "many (most) of us" - you have no evidence for these statements. It is a fact that most users are saying...

3 days ago by kevinmchapman on A tale of two distros: Ubuntu and Linux Mint
Marg Menzies Harrison

Another grammar faux pas is the improper use of "you". When sitting down down in a restaurant, for example, I get cringe when the waitress...

3 days ago by Marg Menzies Harrison via Facebook on 10 flagrant grammar mistakes that make you look stupid
zdnetukuser

And NOW, folks, for Canonical's next trick... Kubuntu is late. Here's a pencil. Draw your own conclusions. cf.:...

3 days ago by zdnetukuser on Linux Minterface
Moley

@kevinmchapman. The discussion here reflects the very significant number of users who really do like the traditional menu system and who wish to...

3 days ago by Moley on A tale of two distros: Ubuntu and Linux Mint
kevinmchapman

Er, no... It is an efficient means of finding the application/file/setting you need in one place. The icons are a simply a fallback for when you...

3 days ago by kevinmchapman on A tale of two distros: Ubuntu and Linux Mint
TerryRK

Isn't the provision of a text based search an admission by the developers that the mass of icons approach does not work? I don't need to use a...

3 days ago by TerryRK on A tale of two distros: Ubuntu and Linux Mint
kevinmchapman

"Unity and GNOME 3 both abandon the old text-based cascading menus in favour of a graphical icon-driven system." Point truly missed. Both use a...

3 days ago by kevinmchapman on A tale of two distros: Ubuntu and Linux Mint
TerryRK

whs001 - Thank you, I'm glad you liked the article. I absolutely agree with you on your first point. I should perhaps have made it clearer that...

3 days ago by TerryRK on A tale of two distros: Ubuntu and Linux Mint
Dennis Nilsson

If we allow corporate interest to dictate the way our government circumvents due process against foreign entities then we should accept the same...

3 days ago by Dennis Nilsson via Facebook on ACTA stumbles in Germany
GHar123

I totally dislike pirating of works, I fear that artists will be deterred from creating works if they think that they are going to get ripped off....

3 days ago by GHar123 on ACTA stumbles in Germany