After swerving off the road a few times, Microsoft is gearing up for another try at the automotive market.
The software maker has persuaded a number of carmakers to use its slimmed-down Windows CE operating system to power a variety of in-car electronics, from navigation systems to music players to information devices. BMW, in particular, has gravitated to Microsoft systems, although the company has announced wins with Honda, Volvo and others as well.
Microsoft has kept its car talk to a dull roar in recent months, but is expected to talk more about its effort in January, when chairman Bill Gates delivers a keynote speech at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas. In a speech to a group of university researchers in July, though, Gates offered a bold forecast.
"You go three years out, which is the design lag on these things -- about 30 percent of the cars will have a Windows CE display system built in them," he said at the time. He added that more of those cars would be in Japan and Europe than in the United States, where "putting a display in the car is still a bit more controversial."
Analysts say that goal may be a hard one to reach.
"That's a bit of a stretch," said Phil Magney, principal analyst of the Telematics Research Group. "You'd have to have 100 percent market share to make that claim."
Microsoft is just one of many companies offering an operating system for use in automotive electronics, competing against QNX Software Systems, Wind River and Linux makers, among others. As of this summer, analysts said the company had just about 10 percent of the market for in-car electronics, an industry that itself has fallen short of early estimates.
Who's gonna drive you home?
Only about 13 percent to 14 percent of cars are connected to a network today, Magney said, although other cars have systems for navigation or entertainment. Most of those that are connected to a network have General Motors' OnStar system, which the carmaker includes as part of the luxury packages for many of its models.
While Gates' short-term goal may still be a bit overblown, analysts say the company has made great strides with its products and has also tamed the hubris that carmakers found off-putting.
"Microsoft's big issue in the past was that the company was very aggressive and probably didn't have the right approach when it came to auto makers and suppliers," said Gartner analyst Thilo Koslowski. "Microsoft always wants to own the customers in the end."
