The Day Ahead: Economy at a crossroads

Daily Newsletters

Sign up to ZDNet UK's daily newsletter.

NEWS
There's been a lot of talk in recent days about the complexities of the "new economy" compared to the "old economy", especially by Fed chairman Alan Greenspan. But does this guy really understand the new economy and, more importantly, does it matter? Conventional wisdom suggests that Greenspan deserves a ton of praise for overseeing the greatest economic expansion in our history. Some even say he's the "most important" man in America, with powers far more daunting than even those of the President. Maybe. Maybe not. Since taking over from Paul Volcker in 1987, Greenspan has been witness to an incredible revolution in technology and on Wall Street. Some cynics might say he's been more of a bystander than a caretaker. By all accounts, he's circumspect to a fault. That's been his greatest strength. While there's no doubting Greenspan's credentials or intentions, an argument could be made that he doesn't have the capacity to understand and, therefore, react to the instantaneous evolution of today's global economy. To be fair, no-one could. Thanks to the Internet and the technological innovations that have impacted every conceivable aspect of our lives, things that were simply out of the realm of possibility just 10 years ago seem to happen with regularity every day. Okay, you say, we already know this. So what? After steadily increasing interest rates over the past year, and the possibility of more in the offing later this year, Greenspan is facing a dilemma that none of his predecessors could have imagined. Namely, how do you gauge when an economy is overheating or destined for a stall when the parameters for measuring the economy change at Internet-like speed? In Greenspan-ese, he's flatly told investors that the market's gone far ahead of itself, and that he'll use the power of interest rate hikes to slow it down. He's been saying that for the past year. And he's been following through. But a funny thing happened on the road to rational exuberance. The Nasdaq has picked up even more momentum, pushing it to within an eyelash of the 5,000-point threshold this week while the old economy-laden Dow has struggled. In fact, following a profit warning from Procter & Gamble and a surge in crude oil prices to a nine-year high, the Dow Jones industrial average fell 347 points to 9,796.03 on Tuesday -- its lowest level since closing at 9,786.16 on 31 March 1999. The Dow has now erased all the huge gains it made in the past year in less than two months, falling from an all-time high of 11,750.28 in mid-January. All this comes one day after Greenspan celebrated his 74th birthday with a speech on "Technology and the Economy" at a conference at Boston College. "I think the past interest rate increases are going to be digested before Greenspan makes any moves," said Arnie Owen, managing director of capital markets at Roth Capital Partners, ahead of Tuesday's collapse. "I think this week we are going to see follow-through in the rally. The Dow was oversold by a lot. I think the confidence level of the investment community is building." Meanwhile, the Nasdaq keeps on cruising. Granted, it fell 57 points on Tuesday after spending much of the day hovering around 5,000. But this index has doubled in the past four months. "This P&G warning reinforces the argument that higher interest rates will affect the old economy stocks, but the new economy is going to sail on," said Chuck Hill, director of research at First Call/Thomson Financial. All this doom and gloom for the Dow comes after some rosy unemployment statistics came out last week. That's if you consider higher unemployment a good thing. The unemployment rate in February actually increased to 4.1 percent from a 30-year low of four percent in January. The cornerstone for Greenspan's insistence on raising interest rates has always hinged on the theory that lower unemployment means higher wage pressure and, thus, escalating inflation. But to date, there's no sign of inflation anywhere. That brings us back to the new economy. On the same day the Dow fell to its lowest level in almost a year, an economic report confirmed that US productivity remains unbelievably strong and inflation remains in check. The fourth-quarter productivity number was revised upward to a 6.4 percent gain, compared to the five percent increase reported a month ago. With productivity high, unit labour costs were restrained, declining 2.5 percent in the fourth quarter. Economists polled by Reuters had expected a productivity increase of 6.3 percent and a drop in labour costs of 2.2 percent. "If you ask yourself why the technology stocks continue to do so well, the answers are in these numbers,'' said Hugh Johnson, chief investment officer at First Albany. "The returns on investment (in technology) are so substantial that rising interest rates or worries about the economy don't matter." I may get inundated with hate emails from the AARP and New York University, but perhaps it's time to start scrutinizing Mr Greenspan's actions and logic a bit more closely. Undoubtedly, he's a brilliant man. But he's also a man who received his undergraduate and master's degrees in economics in 1948 and 1950, respectively. With only eight months remaining before a general election, the omnipotent Fed finds himself facing his most daunting challenge to date. It's clear Greenspan's masterplan to cool off the white-hot stock market has had little or no impact. Technology stocks are immune to the interest rate shuffle, while the old economy stocks are facing a myriad of problems unrelated to interest rates. After raising rates four times since last summer, it's time for Greenspan and company to chill out. Give the stock market and the rest of the economy a chance to digest the last four rate hikes, Al. Don't go making any rash decisions now. What do you think? Tell the Mailroom and read what others have to say. See techTrader for more technology investment news, plus quotes and research. See Inter@ctive Investor for US tech investor news.

Post your comment

In order to post a comment you need to be registered and logged in.

You can also log in with Facebook. Log in or create your ZDNet UK account below

  • Login

Will not be displayed with your comment

By signing up for this service, you indicate that you agree to our Terms and Conditions and have read and understood our Privacy Policy. Questions about membership? Find the answers in the Community FAQ

Get ZDNet UK's daily newsletter

Enter your email address to sign up

ZDNet UK Live

Freebies202

Duplicate comments are not made intentionally. Its very good to know that now you are keeping check on this problem because sometimes a commenter...

5 hours ago by Freebies202 on Microsoft fixes blog comments, speeds up blogs with open source
kevinmchapman

"the very significant number of users" and "many (most) of us" - you have no evidence for these statements. It is a fact that most users are saying...

13 hours ago by kevinmchapman on A tale of two distros: Ubuntu and Linux Mint
Marg Menzies Harrison

Another grammar faux pas is the improper use of "you". When sitting down down in a restaurant, for example, I get cringe when the waitress...

15 hours ago by Marg Menzies Harrison via Facebook on 10 flagrant grammar mistakes that make you look stupid
zdnetukuser

And NOW, folks, for Canonical's next trick... Kubuntu is late. Here's a pencil. Draw your own conclusions. cf.:...

16 hours ago by zdnetukuser on Linux Minterface
Moley

@kevinmchapman. The discussion here reflects the very significant number of users who really do like the traditional menu system and who wish to...

18 hours ago by Moley on A tale of two distros: Ubuntu and Linux Mint
kevinmchapman

Er, no... It is an efficient means of finding the application/file/setting you need in one place. The icons are a simply a fallback for when you...

19 hours ago by kevinmchapman on A tale of two distros: Ubuntu and Linux Mint
TerryRK

Isn't the provision of a text based search an admission by the developers that the mass of icons approach does not work? I don't need to use a...

20 hours ago by TerryRK on A tale of two distros: Ubuntu and Linux Mint
kevinmchapman

"Unity and GNOME 3 both abandon the old text-based cascading menus in favour of a graphical icon-driven system." Point truly missed. Both use a...

21 hours ago by kevinmchapman on A tale of two distros: Ubuntu and Linux Mint
TerryRK

whs001 - Thank you, I'm glad you liked the article. I absolutely agree with you on your first point. I should perhaps have made it clearer that...

21 hours ago by TerryRK on A tale of two distros: Ubuntu and Linux Mint
Dennis Nilsson

If we allow corporate interest to dictate the way our government circumvents due process against foreign entities then we should accept the same...

22 hours ago by Dennis Nilsson via Facebook on ACTA stumbles in Germany
GHar123

I totally dislike pirating of works, I fear that artists will be deterred from creating works if they think that they are going to get ripped off....

24 hours ago by GHar123 on ACTA stumbles in Germany
JCB33

How dare film makers, artists or anybody that invests in creativity stop us pirating their works for free. I want to be able to walk into my local...

1 day ago by JCB33 on ACTA stumbles in Germany
Moley

@GrueMaster. I prefer horses for courses rather than one size fits all. I, and I suspect most other computer users, do not really wish to have...

1 day ago by Moley on A tale of two distros: Ubuntu and Linux Mint
greycynic

The product that scares me every time I have to use it is the Office 2007 version of Excel. The first bug that I found was applying the median...

1 day ago by greycynic on Ten flawed products that derail productivity
GrueMaster

Nice review and very informative. One thing I'd like to add (in reply to whs001's 1st question), the main reason to have the same interface from...

1 day ago by GrueMaster on A tale of two distros: Ubuntu and Linux Mint
Frederick Wrigley

I'be been using Mint 12 since the RC came out, and I am far more happy with the Cinnamon, the Mate, and, yes (with extensions), theGnome 3...

1 day ago by Frederick Wrigley via Facebook on A tale of two distros: Ubuntu and Linux Mint
bdantas

Excellent article. One small correction, though--although a fresh installation of Linux Mint 12 will, indeed, provide the user with a version of...

1 day ago by bdantas on A tale of two distros: Ubuntu and Linux Mint
Alan Ralph

In related news, the ISPs club together to get the members of the Home Affairs Select Committee (ya goofed on that part, ZDNet UK) copies of "The...

1 day ago by Alan Ralph via Facebook on MPs urge ISPs to take down terrorist material
Alan Ralph

In related news, the ISPs club together to get the members of the Home Affairs Select Committee (ya goofed on that part, ZDNet UK) copies of "The...

1 day ago by Alan Ralph via Facebook on MPs urge ISPs to take down terrorist material
Moley

For Gnome 2 die-hards, it is possible to add icons to the bottom panel (or top top panel, if you prefer) which provide the exact Gnome 2...

1 day ago by Moley on A tale of two distros: Ubuntu and Linux Mint