The Day Ahead: Is Alloy Online a 'best small cap investment idea'?

NEWS
Alloy Online creamed Wall Street estimates in its fourth quarter and grabbed a significant investment from Liberty Digital. Now Alloy only has to get Wall Street excited. After the closing bell on Thursday, Alloy topped estimates by two pennies with a fourth quarter operating loss of 28 cents (17p) a share on sales of $15.7m (£9.7m). Revenue easily topped forecasts of about $11.2m (£6.9m). Margins were 58.5 percent, well above a year ago. As of 31 January, Alloy's database of "Generation Y" names reached about 3.2 million, with about 500,000 users established as buyers. But Alloy, an e-tailer that also offers content and community to Generation Y, suffers from a host of problems outside of its control. Alloy is a business-to-consumer (B2C) stock, and shares have been stagnant along with its B2C peers. The company is also hard to categorise -- it's an e-commerce and content hybrid that offers everything from edgy teen clothing to chat. Alloy most directly competes with iTurf, but also battles Gap's Old Navy stores, soon-to-be public upstarts Bolt.com and Snowball.com, and content providers such as iVillage. Meanwhile, Alloy languishes not far from its May IPO price of 15, despite what analysts believe is a clear roadmap to profits. Shares closed at 18 1/4 on Thursday. Analysts contend Alloy won't stay down much longer. Derek Brown, an analyst with WR Hambrecht & Company, said Alloy is one his firm's "best small cap Internet investment ideas". Brown used to work for Prudential Volpe Brown, which had underwriting ties to Alloy. WR Hambrecht doesn't have underwriting ties to Alloy. "A big part of the problem is investors haven't gotten their arms around the convergence story yet," said Brown, who rates Alloy a "market outperform" with a price target of $30 (£18). Brown said Alloy's combination of commerce, content and community is hard to match by the competition. Alloy also has a catalog business that drives traffic and revenue and keeps marketing costs low. The bottom line: It's hard to categorise Alloy. Jeffrey Klinefelter, an analyst with USB Piper Jaffray, said investors aren't sure what to make of Alloy because it straddles categories. USB Piper Jaffray doesn't have underwriting ties to Alloy. Once you get comfortable with the Alloy business model, you'll be hard pressed to get shares. About 70 percent of Alloy's 6.8 million share float is held by institutions. And big shareholders aren't selling, said Brown. The lack of liquidity is both good and bad -- Alloy shares have remained stable, but there haven't been any big runs either. Despite the lack of liquidity and definition problems, the Alloy story is about to gain steam. Klinefelter said the company will gain momentum with some help of Liberty Digital. Earlier this week, Liberty Digital invested $56m (£34m) in Alloy. The companies will also work together to target Alloy's teen demographic through Liberty Digital's interactive TV commerce initiative. Liberty Digital will receive about 2.9 million shares of newly issued Alloy common stock for $19 (£11) per share. In exchange, Alloy will receive $10m (£6.2m) in cash and 837,740 shares of Liberty Digital common stock. "I'm bullish on the concept," said Klinefelter. "The Liberty Digital deal positions them well for multimedia." Alloy is also likely to get a boost from the next round of IPOs. Snowball.com, which will make its market debut next week, has Goldman Sachs as a lead underwriter, while Bolt.com is in the Morgan Stanley camp. Wall Street is going to hear a lot about the Web-centric teen demographic in upcoming weeks. Alloy, like many of the upcoming IPOs, is focused on the biggest group of people since the Baby Boomers. And this group has lots of money to spend. According to the US Census Bureau, 15- to 24-year-olds have disposable income of $302.4bn (£187.9bn). If Snowball.com and Bolt.com make a strong market splash, investors are likely to look for other companies targeting the teen set. That search can only benefit Alloy, which is expected to turn a profit this time next year. One question Alloy is likely to face is whether it should create a network. Alloy currently drives all its traffic into Alloy.com. Other Gen Y players -- eUniverse, Snowball.com and UGO Networks -- have formed networks and diverse properties to target different groups. So far, the lack of a network strategy hasn't hurt the company, but it's something to watch in the future. Alloy has marketing pacts with Yahoo!, Excite@Home and Microsoft Hotmail. The company will also have $85m (£52m) in cash after the Liberty Digital deal closes. What do you think? Tell the Mailroom and read what others have to say. See techTrader for more technology investment news, plus quotes and research. See Inter@ctive Investor for US tech investor news.

Post your comment

In order to post a comment you need to be registered and logged in.

You can also log in with Facebook. Log in or create your ZDNet UK account below

  • Login

Will not be displayed with your comment

By signing up for this service, you indicate that you agree to our Terms and Conditions and have read and understood our Privacy Policy. Questions about membership? Find the answers in the Community FAQ

Get ZDNet UK's daily newsletter

Enter your email address to sign up

ZDNet UK Live

bordero

ike fuelband is great for every healthminded person ! to work out! theres this website called textme4free.com that you can use to text anywhere in...

25 seconds ago by bordero on Nike's FuelBand wristband gamifies exercise
BrownieBoy

> I'm told it's somewhat annoying when people have their Macs stolen > and Apple stores treat the thief as the owner, but there you go. Ouch,...

2 hours ago by BrownieBoy on AMD Ultrathins to challenge Intel Ultrabooks
Moley

@kevinmchapman. OK, I acknowledge that 'most' was a gratuitous throwaway comment as an afterthought and too presumptuous. As to proof, as you...

7 hours ago by Moley on A tale of two distros: Ubuntu and Linux Mint
Jack Schofield

@BrownieBoy > Works really well for thieves.... >> Nice attempt to deflect the argument by tossing in a point that's totally >> irrelevant, even...

8 hours ago by Jack Schofield on AMD Ultrathins to challenge Intel Ultrabooks
raskolnikof

fantastic that the so called piracy bills have been withdrawn. however, these anti-democracy supporters are still in the shadows so lets be alert...

9 hours ago by raskolnikof on SOPA, Protect IP support wavers in face of online protest
Tony Douglas

Please God no; teach them anything you like - thinking rationally, the uses and misuses of data, what data is and what it's not - but leave the...

11 hours ago by Tony Douglas via Facebook on Kids are the future. Teach ’em to code.
BrownieBoy

@Jack, > Works really well for thieves.... Nice attempt to deflect the argument by tossing in a point that's totally irrelevant, even it were...

1 day ago by BrownieBoy on AMD Ultrathins to challenge Intel Ultrabooks
bootlegger

Make that 13 people now - I got refused today at Manchester airport. I thought I was up to date on this legislation - I knew of the EU ruling from...

1 day ago by bootlegger on UK airport body scans will not be opt out
tinycg

Don't forget to check out apps like GoodReader or SlideShark either, they're indispensible for people on the go in presentation situations. Best...

1 day ago by tinycg on Four top iPad apps for people on the move
TerryRK

Well it seems there is something a number of us agree on. Why is the Ubuntu Unity launcher so ugly? I thought perhaps it was something to do with...

1 day ago by TerryRK on A tale of two distros: Ubuntu and Linux Mint
Freebies202

Duplicate comments are not made intentionally. Its very good to know that now you are keeping check on this problem because sometimes a commenter...

2 days ago by Freebies202 on Microsoft fixes blog comments, speeds up blogs with open source
kevinmchapman

"the very significant number of users" and "many (most) of us" - you have no evidence for these statements. It is a fact that most users are saying...

2 days ago by kevinmchapman on A tale of two distros: Ubuntu and Linux Mint
Marg Menzies Harrison

Another grammar faux pas is the improper use of "you". When sitting down down in a restaurant, for example, I get cringe when the waitress...

2 days ago by Marg Menzies Harrison via Facebook on 10 flagrant grammar mistakes that make you look stupid
zdnetukuser

And NOW, folks, for Canonical's next trick... Kubuntu is late. Here's a pencil. Draw your own conclusions. cf.:...

2 days ago by zdnetukuser on Linux Minterface
Moley

@kevinmchapman. The discussion here reflects the very significant number of users who really do like the traditional menu system and who wish to...

2 days ago by Moley on A tale of two distros: Ubuntu and Linux Mint
kevinmchapman

Er, no... It is an efficient means of finding the application/file/setting you need in one place. The icons are a simply a fallback for when you...

2 days ago by kevinmchapman on A tale of two distros: Ubuntu and Linux Mint
TerryRK

Isn't the provision of a text based search an admission by the developers that the mass of icons approach does not work? I don't need to use a...

2 days ago by TerryRK on A tale of two distros: Ubuntu and Linux Mint
kevinmchapman

"Unity and GNOME 3 both abandon the old text-based cascading menus in favour of a graphical icon-driven system." Point truly missed. Both use a...

3 days ago by kevinmchapman on A tale of two distros: Ubuntu and Linux Mint
TerryRK

whs001 - Thank you, I'm glad you liked the article. I absolutely agree with you on your first point. I should perhaps have made it clearer that...

3 days ago by TerryRK on A tale of two distros: Ubuntu and Linux Mint
Dennis Nilsson

If we allow corporate interest to dictate the way our government circumvents due process against foreign entities then we should accept the same...

3 days ago by Dennis Nilsson via Facebook on ACTA stumbles in Germany