The Day Ahead: Profits are Amazon's only defence against critics

Daily Newsletters

Sign up to ZDNet UK's daily newsletter.

NEWS
As we all know by now, the alleged pillar of consumer e-commerce tumbled 19 percent Friday on concerns about slowing sales and the company's debt load. Worries about slowing sales growth isn't news, but what was interesting was a report from Lehman Brothers convertible bond analyst Ravi Suria. "From a bond perspective, we find the credit extremely weak and deteriorating," he wrote. "The company's inability to make hard cash per unit sold, is clearly manifested in the weak balance sheet, poor working capital management and massive negative operating cash flow -- the financial characteristics that have driven innumerable retailers to disaster throughout history. " Amazon.com spokesman Bill Curry told Reuters that Lehman's comments were "absolute, pure unadulterated hogwash." "We are nowhere near running out of cash," Curry said. "Anyone who understands the cash flow dynamics of this business knows this." Curry said the company had more than $1bn (£666m) in cash at the end of the quarter. To determine what the real deal is you have to read between the lines. We'll start with Suria's, "From a bond perspective" line. What this means is that Suria looks at Amazon as a retailer, not an e-tailer. The category difference is very important. If you believe, Amazon is an e-tailer, you don't pay attention to little things such as logistics, inventory and other back-end issues -- yet. Amazon said in its first quarter conference call it will be more efficient. It isn't now though. Suria's assessment that Amazon's bonds aren't worth the paper they're printed on also isn't new. Amazon's bonds were rated at the junk level, which means they're very risky. Suria's "bond perspective" line also sticks out because it shows he doesn't have to play all the games that equity analysts do. He's independent. Isn't it interesting that Merrill Lynch's Henry Blodget and other analysts can flag sales concerns, but still always give Amazon the benefit of the doubt? These equity analysts know Amazon may need more financing and investment banking help at some point. Lehman analyst Holly Becker has a "buy" rating on Amazon shares. Three cheers for independent analysis at Lehman. The last equity analyst that was extremely vocal about Amazon's prospects was Jonathan Cohen, Blodget's predecessor at Merrill. When Amazon shares soared, Cohen, who stuck with the fundamentals, was shown the door and replaced with Blodget. Now let's look at Curry's comments. The first thing Curry tries to do is minimise concerns about a cash crunch. Suria said Amazon won't make it through the first quarter of 2001 without more financing. Curry said the company had more than $1bn in cash at the end of the first quarter. He doesn't indicate how much cash there is near the end of the second quarter. Suria said the company will need cash in a year, not tomorrow. Then consider Curry's "cash flow dynamics" defence. Amazon is clinging to its former virtual model in which it didn't have distribution centres. Amazon's cash flows have historically come from equity and debt offerings. It's a tough way to live these days. Suria contends Amazon looks like a retailer these days. And compared with other retailers, Amazon doesn't look too hot. Amazon didn't address issues raised by Suria, including need for additional financing, inventory progress and other red flags. Stay tuned for Amazon's earnings call. The bottom line here is that Amazon has to deliver on its stated goals: Become more efficient, turn cash flow positive in the fourth quarter and be profitable in its book and music businesses. Until now, however, Amazon's profit push is unproven. If Amazon can deliver positive cash flow, the critics will shut up. Even Suria. "We would become a lot more comfortable with the credit if wee see the company generating positive operating cash flows during the next shopping season and not have to tap the debt markets again to fund its operations," said Suria. It's up to Amazon to deliver. What do you think? Tell the Mailroom. And read what others have said. Take me to the e-commerce special. See ZDII for US tech investor news. See techTrader for more technology investment news, plus quotes and research.

Post your comment

In order to post a comment you need to be registered and logged in.

You can also log in with Facebook. Log in or create your ZDNet UK account below

  • Login

Will not be displayed with your comment

By signing up for this service, you indicate that you agree to our Terms and Conditions and have read and understood our Privacy Policy. Questions about membership? Find the answers in the Community FAQ

Get ZDNet UK's daily newsletter

Enter your email address to sign up

ZDNet UK Live

Simon Bisson and Mary Branscombe

Nice to see that Turing's idea of a general purpose computer doing once-hardware-powered tasks in software is now universal ;-) Mary

4 hours ago by Simon Bisson and Mary Branscombe on Software with everything
Jason Burchell

seriously now. I've only bothered to read a small bit of the comments. do me and the rest of the world a favour. stop saying it does not work or...

8 hours ago by Jason Burchell via Facebook on Music industry negotiating over 24-bit downloads
Philip Charles Cohen

Read about it and weep, John Donahoe ... In addition to Visa’s V.me, there is now MasterCard’s PayPass digital wallet soon to arrive; another...

12 hours ago by Philip Charles Cohen via Facebook on PayPal takes phone-based payments to the high street
apexwm

Leslie Satenstein : Where have you ever seen Mozilla even mention this? Firefox is the most popular browser in the GNU/Linux OS, so I don't see...

13 hours ago by apexwm on Firefox rapid release improves Fedora Linux
songmaster

SHleG: Do you remember building a clockwork scorpion kit (I'm pretty sure I have a photo of it somewhere) — I think it was called something like...

14 hours ago by songmaster on Software with everything
Chris Wortman

Good I love Yahoo! Their search engine is getting better than Google as of late. I find more of what I want on the first page, and usually within...

15 hours ago by Chris Wortman via Facebook on Linux Mint 13 ramps up for KDE release
PatrickG

openhgs has made the point for Windows 8 multiple monitors without realising it! With Windows 7 you have to switch the mouse and so your focus...

17 hours ago by PatrickG on Windows 8 could speed multi-monitor uptake
Leslie Satenstein

Mozilla has threatened to stop supporting Linux. I guess that UBUNTU is going with another browser. I indicated that if Mozilla stops supporting...

18 hours ago by Leslie Satenstein via Facebook on Firefox rapid release improves Fedora Linux
Andy Bolstridge

Much as I abhor Microsoft's licensing practices, this is almost certainly down to purchasing IT equipment via 3rd party consultants - you get the...

18 hours ago by Andy Bolstridge via Facebook on 6 million wasted licences and £1,200 PCs: welcome to government IT
Jack Schofield

@openhgs Windows users have had multiple desktops since Linus started writing Linux. They just haven't shipped as standard because not enough...

1 day ago by Jack Schofield on Windows 8 could speed multi-monitor uptake
Jack Schofield

@Phil at Cloud4 What, Microsoft gets £1,200 per PC and £1,622 per server? Gosh, I'm amazed....

1 day ago by Jack Schofield on 6 million wasted licences and £1,200 PCs: welcome to government IT
craigsc

You guys have no idea what is going on at Autonomy. Autonomy could have been a much more profitable organization. The sales operations at Autonomy...

2 days ago by craigsc on HP cuts 27,000 staff as Autonomy chief Lynch leaves
Moley

How does this impact on dual or multi booting? Seems to me to more or less prohibit this, from Windows 8 anyway. Will Grub 2 recognise Windows 8,...

2 days ago by Moley on Windows 8 start-up speed forces USB boot workaround
apexwm

I don't understand why there cannot be a slight pause during the boot process so the user can press a key. Many operating systems do this, even if...

2 days ago by apexwm on Windows 8 start-up speed forces USB boot workaround
Gavin Goodman

You can now buy the Xi3 modular computer in the UK at http://www.ocdistribution.com . This can be bought with the Tand3m software, pricing and...

2 days ago by Gavin Goodman on CES 2012: Xi3 microSERV3R
Phil at Cloud4

I agree: Mike Lynch can clearly build a business and manage strategy. I suspect the exit of Mike is more likely the end of a planned handover...

2 days ago by Phil at Cloud4 on HP cuts 27,000 staff as Autonomy chief Lynch leaves
Phil at Cloud4

This is unbeleivable government wastage with only one winner... Microsoft 1 - Tax payer Nil!

2 days ago by Phil at Cloud4 on 6 million wasted licences and £1,200 PCs: welcome to government IT
Mispam

So what do you do when you can't boot into windows? Why can't I just hold Shift while I power up instead of having to boot into windows and click a...

2 days ago by Mispam on Windows 8 start-up speed forces USB boot workaround
apexwm

I've also seen that Mac OS X for Intel machines is supposed to run in VirtualBox, which would also be a nice solution. I've never tried it though.

2 days ago by apexwm on xTreme Triple Booting: Linux, Mac & Windows
dave heasman

What I wonder is why when companies are caught bang to rights in not providing contracted services, people bend over to smear the customers? Surely...

2 days ago by dave heasman on Virgin throttles broadband for high-speed customers