The Day Ahead: Simplify Wall Street's rating system

Daily Newsletters

Sign up to ZDNet UK's daily newsletter.

NEWS
Merrill Lynch's Henry Blodget has quite a reputation for talking out of both sides of his mouth and being bullish about Net stocks even as he's downgrading them. When Blodget "reset his sector ratings" last week, it gave the media and Wall Street critics just another round of ammunition. But you can't completely blame Blodget -- he's just a product of a Wall Street stock rating system that could easily be confused with psychobabble. Although it's perfectly logical to wonder about Blodget's timing (he just noticed business-to-consumer stocks stink), the bigger picture is being missed. Blodget and many other analysts are allowed to cover their tails on nearly every stock call because of complex, if not confounding, rating systems. What exactly is the difference between a weak buy and a strong buy? In real life there are three options. You buy a stock. You hold a stock. Or you sell it. Simplify Wall Street's ratings to "buy", "hold", and "sell", restore the meaning in these rankings and everyone will be more accountable. The best you'll find on Wall Street is a five-tier rating system. Armed with Merrill's complicated stock rating system, Blodget can get away comments such as this: "We are resetting the investment ratings for our Internet universe," he wrote in a research note. "The purpose of the reset is not to make a new 'call' on the direction of the group but to provide a more precise differentiation of our current opinions." With that statement setting the stage, Blodget went on to downgrade eToys to a D-3-2-9 from a D-2-1-9, Barnesandnoble.com to a D-3-1-9 from a D-2-1-9 and Pets.com to D-2-2-9 from a D-1-1-9. He left the ratings for Yahoo!, Amazon.com and America Online untouched. When Blodget was done downgrading 11 Internet stocks, investors were left unamused and confused. For the record, Merrill gives a letter risk rating (D is the riskiest), an intermediate term rating (1 is a buy, 3 is a neutral and 6 is a sell), and a long-term rating (more than 12 months). The numeral 9 indicates there are no cash dividends. Roughly translated, Blodget gave eToys a "weak hold", Pets.com a "weak buy", and Barnesandnoble.com a "hold". Translation: you should have bailed on these stocks months ago. Does Pets.com's weak buy mean you should still buy it, but keep your enthusiasm to a minimum? Now contrast these goofy ratings to what happens in real life. Just try calling your broker and saying, "I'd like to 'weak buy' that stock". Wall Street has created a world where "neutral" and "hold" mean it's time to sell. "Can you neutral that stock and send the cheque to me?" If you listened to analysts, you'd never sell anything. Those optimistic analysts rarely do sell ratings. According to First Call, less than one percent of analysts actually hand out sell ratings. Thomas O'Keefe, a research analyst with First Call, said most firms have a 1-through-5 grading scale with 1 being a strong buy and 5 a sell. "They want to provide a ranking scale," said O'Keefe. "But in the long term you can only do three things: buy, hold or sell." See ZDII for US tech investor news. See techTrader for more technology investment news, plus quotes and research. What do you think? Tell the Mailroom. And read what others have said.

Post your comment

In order to post a comment you need to be registered and logged in.

You can also log in with Facebook. Log in or create your ZDNet UK account below

  • Login

Will not be displayed with your comment

By signing up for this service, you indicate that you agree to our Terms and Conditions and have read and understood our Privacy Policy. Questions about membership? Find the answers in the Community FAQ

Get ZDNet UK's daily newsletter

Enter your email address to sign up

ZDNet UK Live

bordero

ike fuelband is great for every healthminded person ! to work out! theres this website called textme4free.com that you can use to text anywhere in...

5 hours ago by bordero on Nike's FuelBand wristband gamifies exercise
BrownieBoy

> I'm told it's somewhat annoying when people have their Macs stolen > and Apple stores treat the thief as the owner, but there you go. Ouch,...

7 hours ago by BrownieBoy on AMD Ultrathins to challenge Intel Ultrabooks
Moley

@kevinmchapman. OK, I acknowledge that 'most' was a gratuitous throwaway comment as an afterthought and too presumptuous. As to proof, as you...

11 hours ago by Moley on A tale of two distros: Ubuntu and Linux Mint
Jack Schofield

@BrownieBoy > Works really well for thieves.... >> Nice attempt to deflect the argument by tossing in a point that's totally >> irrelevant, even...

12 hours ago by Jack Schofield on AMD Ultrathins to challenge Intel Ultrabooks
raskolnikof

fantastic that the so called piracy bills have been withdrawn. however, these anti-democracy supporters are still in the shadows so lets be alert...

13 hours ago by raskolnikof on SOPA, Protect IP support wavers in face of online protest
Tony Douglas

Please God no; teach them anything you like - thinking rationally, the uses and misuses of data, what data is and what it's not - but leave the...

15 hours ago by Tony Douglas via Facebook on Kids are the future. Teach ’em to code.
BrownieBoy

@Jack, > Works really well for thieves.... Nice attempt to deflect the argument by tossing in a point that's totally irrelevant, even it were...

1 day ago by BrownieBoy on AMD Ultrathins to challenge Intel Ultrabooks
bootlegger

Make that 13 people now - I got refused today at Manchester airport. I thought I was up to date on this legislation - I knew of the EU ruling from...

1 day ago by bootlegger on UK airport body scans will not be opt out
tinycg

Don't forget to check out apps like GoodReader or SlideShark either, they're indispensible for people on the go in presentation situations. Best...

1 day ago by tinycg on Four top iPad apps for people on the move
TerryRK

Well it seems there is something a number of us agree on. Why is the Ubuntu Unity launcher so ugly? I thought perhaps it was something to do with...

2 days ago by TerryRK on A tale of two distros: Ubuntu and Linux Mint
Freebies202

Duplicate comments are not made intentionally. Its very good to know that now you are keeping check on this problem because sometimes a commenter...

2 days ago by Freebies202 on Microsoft fixes blog comments, speeds up blogs with open source
kevinmchapman

"the very significant number of users" and "many (most) of us" - you have no evidence for these statements. It is a fact that most users are saying...

2 days ago by kevinmchapman on A tale of two distros: Ubuntu and Linux Mint
Marg Menzies Harrison

Another grammar faux pas is the improper use of "you". When sitting down down in a restaurant, for example, I get cringe when the waitress...

2 days ago by Marg Menzies Harrison via Facebook on 10 flagrant grammar mistakes that make you look stupid
zdnetukuser

And NOW, folks, for Canonical's next trick... Kubuntu is late. Here's a pencil. Draw your own conclusions. cf.:...

2 days ago by zdnetukuser on Linux Minterface
Moley

@kevinmchapman. The discussion here reflects the very significant number of users who really do like the traditional menu system and who wish to...

3 days ago by Moley on A tale of two distros: Ubuntu and Linux Mint
kevinmchapman

Er, no... It is an efficient means of finding the application/file/setting you need in one place. The icons are a simply a fallback for when you...

3 days ago by kevinmchapman on A tale of two distros: Ubuntu and Linux Mint
TerryRK

Isn't the provision of a text based search an admission by the developers that the mass of icons approach does not work? I don't need to use a...

3 days ago by TerryRK on A tale of two distros: Ubuntu and Linux Mint
kevinmchapman

"Unity and GNOME 3 both abandon the old text-based cascading menus in favour of a graphical icon-driven system." Point truly missed. Both use a...

3 days ago by kevinmchapman on A tale of two distros: Ubuntu and Linux Mint
TerryRK

whs001 - Thank you, I'm glad you liked the article. I absolutely agree with you on your first point. I should perhaps have made it clearer that...

3 days ago by TerryRK on A tale of two distros: Ubuntu and Linux Mint
Dennis Nilsson

If we allow corporate interest to dictate the way our government circumvents due process against foreign entities then we should accept the same...

3 days ago by Dennis Nilsson via Facebook on ACTA stumbles in Germany