The Day Ahead: The folly of afterhours trading

Daily Newsletters

Sign up to ZDNet UK's daily newsletter.

NEWS
Commentary: You have to wonder why we financial types even bother watching afterhours trading. Portal Software and Intuit both topped estimates handily, but were whacked in a knee-jerk afterhours trading. Did these super-sleuth afterhours traders know something we didn't? They couldn't have. As both companies were being bullish on their respective analyst conference calls, shares were plunging 20 percent or more on the Island exchange. You can only glean so much from afterhours trading. It's a nice sideshow to keep us interested after the market closes, but most of these trades don't account for conference calls or analyst reactions. For the sake of argument, we'll leave out the afterhours trading of CacheFlow and Novell. Both of those companies met or beat estimates, but the momentum was clearly working against CacheFlow. Meanwhile, Novell is the forgotten stock. Who cares at this point? The company blew it a few quarters ago. Let's look at the afterhours trades of Portal Software and Intuit. Portal Software's biggest crime was doubling earnings estimates and mentioning that North American telecommunications upstarts delayed spending -- capital fled those companies that didn't have a business model. Portal Software, which provides Internet Protocol billing software and services, has been whacked over fears of telecommunications capital spending. The company was roughly in line with revenue projections and delivered a bullish outlook. "The pipeline is better than it has ever been," said chief executive John Little. Besides, Portal Software is more linked to telecommunications customer growth than telco capital spending. Billing software is a necessity and Portal has the market cornered. The company has also made a big push to land the top carriers. Analysts said Portal has 15 of the top 20 carriers worldwide. Officials were confident Portal would land more big carriers. As Portal was telling analysts that demand was strong and revenue would be up about 13 percent to 16 percent sequentially to $81m to $83m, including a recent acquisition, shares fell a bit more. Portal fell more as Little was detailing how Europe and Asia sales were strong. Portal said it was comfortable with fiscal 2002 sales and earnings targets, but held back on more guidance because the company was still in its planning phase. You could nit-pick over Portal's results, but the company handled itself well in what could have been a tough quarter. Portal Software also has momentum problems. Shares were trading near a 52-week low Tuesday. On Wednesday, shares may fall some more and Little will be asked what he said to scare investors. He'll have no idea. Neither do we. And let's not forget Intuit, a personal finance software/portal company that has seen damn near all of its dot-com competition die in the last year. Intuit topped analysts' sales and earnings targets, showed traction for its numerous small business initiatives and turned a profit with its online mortgage business. Saying Intuit is in a strong position is quite an understatement. The crime? Intuit didn't talk up estimates for fiscal year. It's still counting on some big growth ahead. It didn't matter. As Intuit was telling folks how its tax season would boost results and allow the company to pull ahead even more, shares were down about 18 percent. Sure, you could fret about some minor details -- Intuit's online insurance business still isn't where it needs to be -- but the overall picture looks good. Maybe afterhours traders were worried about Intuit's problems, which most companies would love to have. Intuit has to diversify its online advertiser base -- those big financial services companies that make gobs of money dominate the customer list. Awww. Now poor Intuit needs to go after those big companies like Ford Motor that would love to market to its affluent user base. As for dot-com advertisers, Intuit doesn't have many. Anyone with a time horizon of more than six months would like Intuit's potential. But potential isn't much of an issue in afterhours trading, which requires that you trade now and think later -– maybe. See ZDII for US tech investor news. See techTrader for more technology investment news, plus quotes and research. Have your say instantly, and see what others have said. Click on the TalkBack button and go to the ZDNet News forum. Let the editors know what you think in the Mailroom. And read what others have said.

Post your comment

In order to post a comment you need to be registered and logged in.

You can also log in with Facebook. Log in or create your ZDNet UK account below

  • Login

Will not be displayed with your comment

By signing up for this service, you indicate that you agree to our Terms and Conditions and have read and understood our Privacy Policy. Questions about membership? Find the answers in the Community FAQ

Get ZDNet UK's daily newsletter

Enter your email address to sign up

ZDNet UK Live

bordero

ike fuelband is great for every healthminded person ! to work out! theres this website called textme4free.com that you can use to text anywhere in...

10 hours ago by bordero on Nike's FuelBand wristband gamifies exercise
BrownieBoy

> I'm told it's somewhat annoying when people have their Macs stolen > and Apple stores treat the thief as the owner, but there you go. Ouch,...

12 hours ago by BrownieBoy on AMD Ultrathins to challenge Intel Ultrabooks
Moley

@kevinmchapman. OK, I acknowledge that 'most' was a gratuitous throwaway comment as an afterthought and too presumptuous. As to proof, as you...

16 hours ago by Moley on A tale of two distros: Ubuntu and Linux Mint
Jack Schofield

@BrownieBoy > Works really well for thieves.... >> Nice attempt to deflect the argument by tossing in a point that's totally >> irrelevant, even...

17 hours ago by Jack Schofield on AMD Ultrathins to challenge Intel Ultrabooks
raskolnikof

fantastic that the so called piracy bills have been withdrawn. however, these anti-democracy supporters are still in the shadows so lets be alert...

18 hours ago by raskolnikof on SOPA, Protect IP support wavers in face of online protest
Tony Douglas

Please God no; teach them anything you like - thinking rationally, the uses and misuses of data, what data is and what it's not - but leave the...

20 hours ago by Tony Douglas via Facebook on Kids are the future. Teach ’em to code.
BrownieBoy

@Jack, > Works really well for thieves.... Nice attempt to deflect the argument by tossing in a point that's totally irrelevant, even it were...

1 day ago by BrownieBoy on AMD Ultrathins to challenge Intel Ultrabooks
bootlegger

Make that 13 people now - I got refused today at Manchester airport. I thought I was up to date on this legislation - I knew of the EU ruling from...

2 days ago by bootlegger on UK airport body scans will not be opt out
tinycg

Don't forget to check out apps like GoodReader or SlideShark either, they're indispensible for people on the go in presentation situations. Best...

2 days ago by tinycg on Four top iPad apps for people on the move
TerryRK

Well it seems there is something a number of us agree on. Why is the Ubuntu Unity launcher so ugly? I thought perhaps it was something to do with...

2 days ago by TerryRK on A tale of two distros: Ubuntu and Linux Mint
Freebies202

Duplicate comments are not made intentionally. Its very good to know that now you are keeping check on this problem because sometimes a commenter...

2 days ago by Freebies202 on Microsoft fixes blog comments, speeds up blogs with open source
kevinmchapman

"the very significant number of users" and "many (most) of us" - you have no evidence for these statements. It is a fact that most users are saying...

3 days ago by kevinmchapman on A tale of two distros: Ubuntu and Linux Mint
Marg Menzies Harrison

Another grammar faux pas is the improper use of "you". When sitting down down in a restaurant, for example, I get cringe when the waitress...

3 days ago by Marg Menzies Harrison via Facebook on 10 flagrant grammar mistakes that make you look stupid
zdnetukuser

And NOW, folks, for Canonical's next trick... Kubuntu is late. Here's a pencil. Draw your own conclusions. cf.:...

3 days ago by zdnetukuser on Linux Minterface
Moley

@kevinmchapman. The discussion here reflects the very significant number of users who really do like the traditional menu system and who wish to...

3 days ago by Moley on A tale of two distros: Ubuntu and Linux Mint
kevinmchapman

Er, no... It is an efficient means of finding the application/file/setting you need in one place. The icons are a simply a fallback for when you...

3 days ago by kevinmchapman on A tale of two distros: Ubuntu and Linux Mint
TerryRK

Isn't the provision of a text based search an admission by the developers that the mass of icons approach does not work? I don't need to use a...

3 days ago by TerryRK on A tale of two distros: Ubuntu and Linux Mint
kevinmchapman

"Unity and GNOME 3 both abandon the old text-based cascading menus in favour of a graphical icon-driven system." Point truly missed. Both use a...

3 days ago by kevinmchapman on A tale of two distros: Ubuntu and Linux Mint
TerryRK

whs001 - Thank you, I'm glad you liked the article. I absolutely agree with you on your first point. I should perhaps have made it clearer that...

3 days ago by TerryRK on A tale of two distros: Ubuntu and Linux Mint
Dennis Nilsson

If we allow corporate interest to dictate the way our government circumvents due process against foreign entities then we should accept the same...

3 days ago by Dennis Nilsson via Facebook on ACTA stumbles in Germany