Like nearly everything else in the processor world these days, the fate of the Pentium 4 seems inextricably linked to power consumption. Although Intel managed to reduce the power consumption on the mobile Pentium 4 beyond most expectations, the chip still consumes more power than the mobile Pentium III or the upcoming Banias processor. As a result, most PC makers are incorporating the chip into so-called "desktop replacement" notebooks. These machines typically weigh seven to eight pounds and can include recordable DVD/CD drives. The larger size allows manufacturers to insert more fans and other insulating components. Most of the machines are being sold to consumers, especially those moving from desktops for the first time. Intel's MacDonald said some 85 percent to 90 percent of the notebooks in retail fit in this category, which, to the surprise of many, continues to thrive. "There are a hell of a lot of first-time notebook buyers coming into the market," MacDonald said. "The world's first small-form-factor desktop is a large notebook." Pentium 4 notebooks, however, are competing against far cheaper alternatives. Notebooks with the new chip are priced at $1,850 and up, while notebooks with different chips are selling for $999 and $899. According to sources, Intel will help move the market along by introducing 1.4GHz and 1.5GHz versions of the mobile Pentium 4 in late April. These chips are expected to allow PC makers to offer mobile Pentium 4-based notebooks closer to the $1,500 mark. The other growing segment in the notebook market is the so-called "thin and light" category. These notebooks weigh five pounds or less and measure 1.4 inches thick or less. About 60 percent of the notebooks now sold to corporations fit this category, said MacDonald. Although the Pentium 4 will begin to enter this realm later in the year, most companies are currently using Pentium III notebooks, MacDonald acknowledged. The question then is whether these customers will move next to the Pentium 4 or wait for Banias in 2003 or 2004. "The Pentium 4 is in an awkward position. It is sort of stuck between the Pentium III and Banias," said Mercury Research's McCarron. "If they want to stimulate Pentium 4 portable processor sales, they are going to have to do something more."
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