Analysts and Flash developers say Lynch's vision has promise, but it's likely to be a while before it takes off. Other enhancements in Flash MX products have focused on improving functions already offered by Web sites, particularly e-commerce operations, allowing Macromedia to make a strong return-on-investment argument for upgrading. Communication features would be new add-ons with unproven returns. In the current economic climate, such new ideas are unlikely to find an immediately friendly audience, said Rikki Kirzner, an analyst for research firm IDC. "I think there are some major opportunities here, but the biggest problem is that you have to wait for the market to catch up -- nobody's really looking for this kind of capability," Kirzner said. "And a lot of people got burned before by jumping on the latest, greatest Web thing. Once the profits come back, then they'll begin to look at new tools and new capabilities." Given Macromedia's status as the leading provider of professional Web development tools, the company can afford to wait, Kirzner added. "The chances of somebody stepping up to the plate and offering a competing product is pretty slim," Kirzner said. "I have no doubt they will lead with this capability as soon as the market wakes up to it. They have a really strong developer community; you give them something good, and they adopt it and suck it up fast." But it will take more than developer support to make Web pages do new tricks. Web design, including Flash work, has become increasingly specialised, said Chris MacGregor, a Web designer and creator of Flash critique site Flazoom. Decisions about adding new functions to a site are typically made at the executive level. "I think most designers will know the technology is available," MacGregor said, "but I can't see many people who are just designers...saying 'I'm going to learn how to build a chat room and put that on the site.' Those kind of decisions are much more for strategists, people who are at the higher end of deciding how a Web site works. "I can see clients starting to ask for this kind of technology," MacGregor added. "And the developers will tell them Flash can handle chat room and messaging technology a lot better and more compatibly with the different kinds of browsers that are out there." Aral Balkan, a London-based Flash developer, said it won't be too tough to convince developers of the benefits of adding communication features to their site. But getting businesses to cover the extra costs associated with maintaining servers for such applications is likely to be a tough sell. "There is no doubt much enthusiasm on the part of the developer community surrounding the Communications Server," Balkan said. "But it may be too optimistic at this point to assume that this will come to pass in the very near future." Lynch acknowledged that adding communication features to sites will require rethinking the way the Web works. "I'd say it's the most experimental of the MX products," Lynch said. "The radical thing (is) it's based on the small Flash player 200 million people already have. The capability is already there." Lynch is confident Web users will start to demand communication-enabled sites, however, once they see the benefits. "Part of it is the emotional element of communications," Lynch said. "Today, about the most you can do is add a smiley face to your email. But think about when you can actually see or hear the person you're communicating with... We think this is a completely radical, disruptive technology."
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