Part of Itanium's gradual growth can be attributed to the glacial nature of the market. Customers are loath to try out new big iron machines, especially now with tightening IT budgets, several analysts and executives have said. "I don't think there will be any significant volume until Madison and Deerfield next year," said Kevin Krewell, senior editor of Microprocessor Report, an industry newsletter. Madison and Deerfield are code-names for future versions of Itanium set to arrive in 2003. In earlier years, McKinley, the code-name of the chip that became Itanium 2, was expected to kick off volume sales. An Intel spokeswoman declined to comment on the figures or projections for Itanium sales, but acknowledged that gaining acceptance will be a long process. "We're happy with the ramp we've got going," she said. "It is a slow and steady gain." At the same time, Itanium has been subject to the political forces of the hardware market. HP, the co-developer of the chip and one of its biggest boosters, is still grappling with its just-completed merger with Compaq Computer. Dell Computer, which is quick to adopt Intel chips, has scaled back its overall Itanium efforts and has not committed to new Itanium 2 products. "Dell is the lynchpin of this thing," Krewell said. Despite its reluctance about Itanium, Dell will be crucial to Intel's push in the low end of the server market. Dell barely gained market share, in terms of revenue, in the second quarter. Yet the figure is slightly deceiving, Hewitt said, as smaller servers continue to gain popularity at the expense of the larger, more complex machines. "When you look at the broad picture, Dell continues to chip away," he said.
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