IDC analyst Al Gillen cautioned not to read too much into the expected large percentage of people running older Windows when Microsoft is expected to release Office 11. "From a corporate perspective, even if Microsoft releases a new product it doesn't mean people are going to just run out and get it," he said. "So you're really looking a year out from the release date before corporations move to it in any volume." Gartner's Silver noted that consumers could be in for trouble "if Microsoft cuts out Windows Me support for Office 11." But consumers, like businesses, tend to upgrade their productivity suite with the purchase of a new computer and operating system. "When you look at the timing from these two perspectives, it's not as bad as it might appear today," Gillen said. Dropping support for older versions of Windows would be consistent with Microsoft's past behavior and efforts to move Windows to a single code base. The consumer and business versions of Windows XP, for example, share the same lineage as 2000 and NT, which are considered to be 32-bit operating systems. In the past, Microsoft supported two separate code bases, one for businesses based on Windows NT and another for businesses and consumers based on Windows 95. "It looks like Microsoft is sort of moving support for operating systems to 32-bit OSes," DeGroot said. "It may make (Office 11) a more stable release if it's on these fully 32-bit platforms." By focussing on development for the single Windows code base, Microsoft could conceivably deliver a better version of Office and cut development costs in the process. But the company also has a tendency of being heavy-handed with customers who resist making the transition to a newer operating system. "It's not the first time they've done it," Silver said. "Office XP wouldn't install on Windows 95. In fact, they built something into Office XP so that it wouldn't install on Windows 95." Silver said a repeat performance with Office 11 would not be surprising, in part "because all support for Windows 98 and NT end on 30 June, 2003. This is certainly in keeping with the lifecycle of Windows. If they don't support a version of Windows, why should they continue to support an application on that version of Windows?" Gillen agreed. "How long should a company be obligated to be backward-compatible -- until the end of time?"
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