In any love affair there is a honeymoon period where everything is rosy, optimistic and blissfully free of any negativity. But this kind of blind affection doesn't last forever. Eventually, as both sides get to know each other more intimately, the honeymoon period gives way to a more realistic appreciation of each other's strength's and weaknesses – a positive readjustment.
The IT industry's love affair with everything Linux is undergoing just such an adjustment at the moment. After being hyped as the panacea for everything wrong with the Wintel monoculture, the rose-tinted spectacles have finally come off and serious and realistic questions are now being asked about whether Linux is really going to usurp Windows across the board.
This adjustment is more advanced when it comes to server deployments where the OS has earned its stripes and is well into the realistic appreciation phase. However, the adoption of Linux on the desktop is lagging compared with data centre deployments and is mired in the transition between honeymoon and realistic appreciation.
Analyst Gartner Group released a study this week which claimed that desktop implementations have up until now been characterised by "over enthusiasm and unrealistic projections which lead to more failures than successes". The analyst has an adoption model called the Hype Cycle which represents the pattern of blind devotion followed by readjustment. According the analyst firm's schema, desktop Linux has gone through the "Peak of Inflated Expectations" and is now slipping into the "Trough of disillusionment". However this is not as bad as its sounds, providing the OS continues to move forward, the next step is to transition into the "Slope of Enlightenment" and eventually to the "Plateau of Productivity".
But escape form the trough is not guaranteed; just as some relationships falter after the honeymoon period, the Linux community must convince its IT industry admirers that they have a long-term future together. The cause has not been helped by the fact that the City of Munich – one of the most high profile migrations to desktop Linux to date -- has been delayed. The massive amount of attention that has been focused on Munich has no doubt contributed to its decision to take its time and get the migration right. This is undoubtedly the right decision. A high profile failure at this point certainly will not help. But a solid, proven success will go some way towards ensuring that the IT industry's interest in desktop Linux is more than a passing infatuation.
Talkback
Using Linux for 11 years now.
I have found NO disillusionment with Linux?
I HAVE found an attitude of "Let's make it work".
I have NOT found the typical "Let's screw the customer".
THAT INFORMATION SEEMS LIKE MOST OF WHAT IS WRITTEN ON ZDNET, AT LEAST ONE-SIDED.
I WOULD NOT DRAW CONCLUSIONS ON THE ETHICS OF ZDNET BUT THIS CERTAINLY LACKS PROFFESSIONALISM.
REPORTING INFORMATION FROM THE Gartner Group AND AMPLIFYING IT TO A NON NEGOCIABLE TRUTH EVEN AFTER THAT SAME INFORMATION HAS BEEN DEBATED AT LEAST ON MANY FORUMS RAISE AT LEAST SOME QUESTIONS.
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE GO TO/
http://mirror.opensource.dk/halloween/halloween6.php
Sorry but this article and its poor representation of whats really going on in Munich and the delay are just simply a bad example of piss poor journalism. You broke dicks need to do some research before writing such half baked crap.
It appears to me that Gartner is trying to avoid being wrong about Open Source Software. They have published some much misinformation in the past that they are now hedging their bets by giving Open Source and Linux in particular a passing mark with a "could try harder" comment at the mid-term hoping that no-one will notice all the past FUD they have published.
Gartner just like most mature governments can't affort to be wrong. If you disagree just look at Tory (sic) Blair, the London bombings and Iraq or George W and Katrina. As always, someone else is to blame
Two years ago Red Hat, not even thought there would ever be a Linux Desktop market, and most other big Linux distributers seamed to agree with them. Since then there have been four new releases of the Gnome desktop environment, each of them with significant improvements on performance, functionality and usability.
The Linux Gnome Desktop have today turned into something that is simple, elegant, and it just works. Gone are the days when everything needed to be tweeked from the command line.
However I do think Gartner is right. It will take five years before Linux Desktop is mainstream. It will take two years for the software industry to realize that it is, one year to port and develop applications, and tow years to have theese applications penetrate the market.
In that time a lot of business opportunities will be lost, not only on Linux software as more and more Linux application development toolkits gets ported to windows. This means that the front line in the battle for free software will move from Linux to the windows platform.
Today there are many high quality applications that could do substantial damage to software houses in the windows world if ported to windows. Just look at OpenOffice.org. It allready have about the same market share that Microsoft have for the latest incarnation of their Office suit. Look at how Mozilla/Firefox have eaten into the IE explorer market. IE have moved from having over 90% of the market to around 70% or even lower in two years. Would that have happened if there had been a IE for Linux? Probably not.
To prevent free software from invading from the Linux side windows application developers will need to have a presence in the Linux world as well. When there are a sufficinet number of cross platform software titles, there will be no reason to pay for windows, and Linux will grow.
The author of this article apparently doesn't use Linux--it's only the beginning of what will be a big year for Linux on the Desktop with companies like Novell/SuSE 9.3 (10.0 due out in October) making inroads into the Windows Desktop market.
But what do I know?
I only use Linux.
Everyone should draw their own conclusion based on their own non-emotional examination of the facts and not someone else's interpretation of the facts.
I've learned that their are many people that are rich, powerful, and influential, that do not know what on God's green earth they're talking about. They sit on technology corporate boards, have consulting firms, hold political office, etc. and rant and rave about topics of which they have little or no understanding but can speak intelligently and sophisticated enough to fool the rest of us. In short they tell us what to think for instance, "Linux is loosing its luster and is not what its cracked up to be." and that "Linux has more to prove to the wrest of the world before it can be accepted."
Some writers without enough knowledge to make informed opions of their own pass this garbage to the general public (I have already read three different artricles perpetuating this same crap). Typically the general (uninformed) public believes everything they read just like a child believes everything he or she sees on the Saturday morning cartoons, or in the movies, etc. Then spreads this bad information and negative energy back to their bosses, peers, other publications, etc. It's a feedback mechanism that amplifies whatever cognitive or sub-cognitive suggestions that have been put into it.
I'm tired of every Tom, Dick and Harry seeking power, control and respect among his peers and using anti-Linux and sometimes pro-Linux issues as platform to achieve such goals without regard to real facts and truth.
THINK FOR YOURSELVES.
PURSUE TRUTH FOR YOURSELVES.
DON'T LET THE HIDDEN AGENDAS OF PEOPLE THAT WANT POWER AND INFLUENCE OVER **YOU** SWAY YOU FROM THE PURSUIT OF TRUTH.
OK read this.
If you are trying to bolster the troops then yes Linux has room for improvment and we'd better get over whether or not it's "like" Windows and make it better. time saved is what matters. The thing is, we are doing that at a feverish pace. It's not lacking any major Windows benefits today!
Make no mistake, if you utilize Free Open Source Software (now proved free in it's shared and better way) then you will have some work ahead of you! Yet, LESS THAN WITH WINDOWS!
The work is mainly where you need it to "just work" in the manner that you do. You no longer need to slave over the inerworkings. It's better than Windows.
That's kinda the point. It's still a computer system that can piss you off, but much less than Windows today.
It's not alltogether inacurate (none the less) to state that a distribution of GNU/Linux is 100% secure compared to Linux. Now, nothing is really 100% but comapred to Windows, what everyyone seems to be missing is it's about 99% pefect with security. This base on actual, spreadable malware. There is none. Did I say take security prcatices for granted. Hell no. I'm saying Windows is unsecure at ANY given moment and almost 100% due to design (by standard defaults) linux is secure.
Today a time saving distribution like Mepis is trully overall better. Sure everything has it's pro's and con's. You might actually miss something if you leave Windows alltogether. Many have left Windows altogether and find computer life MUCH less complex. Get this. You'll be missing much more if you don't grab a free copy of Linux (distribution based on GNU and Linux).
You don't have to delete Windows to stop sending in your money and/or buying systems with Windows. You can dual boot if you are concerned. You don't have to delete Window when you load Linux.
Multi use desktop computers are complex, Linux will not stop this but offers the best manner to deal with it. The upgrade system alone is worth it. It's only your (free) future.
Freedom. Use it or lose it.
Now a word about the complex issue of hardware. You see many of these point do not have a cut and dry propaganda view.
For example. Mepis may actually work with more differing combination of "PC's" and with less overall trouble than Windows XP.
First off, XP and the 98 series use different drivers and the new "Vista" (criuser) 64 bit new driver sets altogether. So Win98 may have the best record but it undesireable compared to XP overall. AKA, you give up too much by staying with 98.
I'm saying all this because some products/devices/systems have come in under the (monopolistic uncompetitive) radar and WERE PURPOSELY DESIGNED TO WORK WITH WINDOWS ONLY. I'm talking about closed(if you will) devices that have NO good reason to exclude other operating sytems.
Guess what, Linux developer have engineered around many of these win-devices anyway! Still some remain and are usually not popular or so new that the Linux workaround will be here next week.
The good news is many of these cheap devices can be replaced for under $20 and that's just what you should do (or consider slightly more expensive "ethernet" versions, like a "dual PC Modem" if your stuck with dial up OR for broad band, a "Client Bridge" enabled 802.11 "ethernet" NIC.) Make sure your cheaper internal card is support by simply cheacking with your preferred Linux distribution first. DO NOT get all bent out of shape becuse it only works on Windows (usually 98) and therefore it should be theoretically possible to force it to work on Linux. You do NOT have to deal with that.
So you see Linux has excellent harware compatibility with hardware that isn't part of the Windows only universe plan. bottom line is MEPIS works for most people automagically. So if it doesn't, chances are you now know why and what to do about it.
The more I deal with Dell hardware (to name one), the more I see they and Microsoft have a legacy of systems meant to exclude the easy adopt
Part 2
.. adoption of anything other than Windows. I strongly suggest you REQUIRE open compatibility with ANY hardware and systems you open your wallet to.
In summary, Windows is NOT easier to install that say Mepis. I know this for experience and installing both. So keep in mind the veiled phycological effect of a prematched and debuged store bought system that comes with WIndows (and no choice othewrwise by licence.) You are paying extra and therefore getting cheaper and cheaper hardware for those greater Windows dollars included in your price. Funds that could be redirected to a much faster and more open system. It's up to you to let you desire be know before we will see low cost pre-built linux systems.
The interesting thing is, pre-matched Linux software to hardware system pricing suffers a bit because is so darn easy to install the software from CD yourself.
In summary, the mantra used to be, don't give up on your Linux install, work through it for a better system. Then it was hell. Now today, it's much different (MEPIS.) I say don't give up on your easy CD install because once you eliminated the unsupported percentage of the Win-only devices, it's the easiest of any software installs.
The rewards are outstanding. There are so many advantages it would take a book. So just try it and remember you are a newbie so have a liitle patience during your first use, ask for help in the free forums and don't make any evaluations till you've lived with it a little while. After all, how many years have you suffered Windows?
Overall, don't make the mistake of thinking you are stuck with Windows because you don't have time for all this Linux crap. Windows is NOT saving you any time, money and it's an overall inferior system today (with much less choice.)
Having taken the plunge into Linux over a year ago, I'm far from disillusioned. I still have to use Microsoft at work, but don't at home, and cannot see me going back. Yes, I'll agree, I had a few problems on the way and dual booted for a while, but not any more.
I'm multibooting and liked Mandrake 7.2 a lot more than its Red Hat peer. I'm using Mandrake 10.1 now and think it's a pretty decent desktop, easy to install and substantially improved from when I started using Mandrake Linux. I have found that some applications need a little work, like a graphic file compressor and archiver. There are several, but the effort should be focussed on making one good one, not three shabby ones. These problems will be fixed. But chiefly, I like the non-proprietary noncommercial aspect of Linux, its volunteer-based nature, and the opportunity to contribute to open-source development myself without having to jump through the hoops to get an exclusive IT job in a distant IT oasis like Seattle or Palo Alto. A hobbyist like myself can use otherwise wasted skills and make a difference in spare time.
QWERTY based keyboards are not the best design around but and this is a big but they are 'good enough'. No one is going to replace every keyboard in the world with a better design due to the retraining/production costs.
This is exactly the same as most Microsoft products. As much as Linux users may whinge Microsoft products are good enough for the job. Linux doesnt have to be better to replace it is has to be a 100 times better and no one is going to change over for 'poliical we hate Microsoft reasons'
> the Linux community must convince its IT industry admirers that they have a long-term future together.
Why must the Linux community do this? It's a matter of indifference to the Linux community whether the IT industry thinks it has a long-term future with Linux. Linux will go on for as long as its community wants to support and devlop it, and doesn't measure itself by industry uptake.
Hi Jon,
There's another theory. Microsoft only needs to get worse in some way to get it replaced by something else. What do you think inspired plenty of migration projects around the globe? That Linux is 100 times better or that Microsoft is getting worse is some way?
Thing is that "good enough" is far from vendor exclusive.
Linux GUI went into wrong direction.
Linux shouldn't copy pattern of the desktop GUI which has been made colony by Apple & Microsoft two decades ago.
As a business user, I would appreciate if KDE/GNOME could design a portal interface for me to remotely run our daily operations such as email,browser and some officeware tapping from our company's server via internet.
We may use thin client (something like boot ROM,flash chip without Hardisk), keyin "userID", "password", "web domain name" to get access to applications from the back-end server run by Linux Portal Server(LPS).
The Portal Server - Portal Client method will replace the Windows/Mac's GUI methods to retrieve/process the information.
As time goes on, extreme cheap client device/termial can be everywhere running thin portal OS at most public areas such as Airport,Restorant,Shopping center,Railway station, petrol station and etc.
In short, we don't need OS to work, we just need a portal interface.
Posted by: stevensee