Well, now it's official. The story broke late last week and was greeted with fair scepticism then because it all seemed rather far fetched. And it still seems that way, even though it has indeed happened.
Is this deal expensive? We think so. eBay could have developed its own sophisticated messaging and communications platform, or even bought one, for far less money than it is paying for Skype. We appreciate that eBay is not just buying Skype's technology; it's also acquiring Skype's user base and its brand. But we question whether even that justifies the $2.6bn (£1.4bn) (plus) price tag.
And if eBay is mainly paying for Skype's user base and brand, that makes this a risky investment. Let's not forget that Skype is mainly about cheap or free phone calls. To date, most of its customers have never paid Skype anything, and we suspect that many never will. We would question just how many Skype customers use the service with any regularity.
It's also unlikely that many Skype users will be driven to eBay. True, many Skype customers may never have made an eBay purchase or sale — but we don't think that many will have the financial means or inclination to do so in the near future. As for the usefulness of Skype functionality for Ebay sellers, it's questionable whether most eBay sellers want direct real-time communication with buyers. Merchants are probably too busy, and individuals will find it hard to weed-out timewasters pestering them for trivial information. E-mail surely works very well in those situations.
Whichever way we look at it, we think eBay is paying very dearly for what it's getting here.
Mark Main is a Senior Analyst within Ovum's consumer practice. He can be contacted directly at mmn@ovum.com.
