By next year, half of all devices connected to the internet will have Silverlight, says Microsoft's Walid Abu-Hadba.
That will still be just a fraction of the number of phones and computers that have a version of Adobe's Flash, but Abu-Hadba [pictured] said that it will be enough to start changing the mindset of those who create content for the web.
According to Abu-Hadba, who leads Microsoft's developer and platform evangelism efforts: "It's a totally different game." He noted that Microsoft now has a set of features that can appeal to those streaming large-scale web video content as well as software developers aiming to create programs that run inside businesses.
Abu-Habda's comments came following Microsoft's launch on Friday of Silverlight 3, the latest version of its technology for rich media applications. The new version allows for programs that work in and out of the browser, supports up to 1080p streaming, and lets users pause and rewind a live video stream.
One of the areas where Microsoft still has work to do is on the phone side. Microsoft has long talked about offering Silverlight on phones, even hoping to bring it to Apple's iPhone, but today it is not commercially available for any phone.
"It's taken a little bit longer than we would have wanted, absolutely," said Abu-Hadba.
However, Abu-Hadba and fellow developer unit executive Scott Guthrie said Microsoft has taken the approach that it wants the Silverlight experience on the phone to match that offered on the PC, as opposed to Adobe's approach with Flash. Also, Guthrie said, the landscape for the phone has changed dramatically, with more phones adding the kind of graphics chips necessary to do hardware-based acceleration.
"We want to make sure people have a 'wow' experience," Guthrie said.
Microsoft is beta testing its phone software for both Android and Windows Mobile, and announcements are expected at this autumn's Professional Developer Conference in Los Angeles.
"You are going to hear a lot more details about it later this year," Guthrie said.
For his part, Abu-Hadba said he does not wonder whether Silverlight will be around 10 years from now, but rather whether his rival will. He said Adobe has committed itself to moving from a design-oriented company to one that aims to offer a general-purpose web platform, something he said the company does not have the resources or experiences to make happen.
"I don't believe they have the assets or the organisational structure," he said. "That's what we do for a living at Microsoft."
Abu-Hadba said Adobe would be better off picking a speciality and sticking to it.
"I don't think they will exist in 10 years in the form they are today," he said. It is a bold statement, he agreed, but added how unthinkable it would have been to predict in 2000 that Sun would go away.
Talkback
I think the same may be said of Microsoft, who have spent so long alienating their customer base, the result of that "investment" is actually beginning to show. They tried to break Quicktime and failed, so now they are going after Adobe. The result could well be the same again, particularly if they get up to some of the same shenanigans.
A leopard can't change it's spots, and MS can't change their reputation. The only thing that keeps them in the lead is the fact that you are FORCED to pay for their OS when you buy a PC off the shelf.