The blow came from a supposed friend -- Nokia. It revealed this week that the enterprises it talks to just aren't interested in 3G. Instead, they find GPRS works fine on the road, and prefer Wi-Fi in the office and at hot spots.
This comes at a time when the 3G market finally looked to be in better shape, with four different laptop data cards now on sale in the UK. If Nokia is right -- and this is a firm whose whole future depends on it -- then the 3G market could be facing a sticky fate.
In fact, 3G is looking like this decade's version to ISDN -- which for the benefit of younger readers was a 128Kbps data service launched in the 1980s. Astonishingly fast for its time, ISDN failed to become a mass-market proposition because its appeal just wasn't compelling enough. It cost too much, it was atrociously marketed, hard to make work and beset by industry -- read BT -- politics.
People who just wanted to make voice calls were happy with their existing, cheaper service, consumers wanting to do personal data couldn't afford it, and companies wanting to do data were doing it point-to-point where fixed lines were a better option. Not for nothing did cynics call the service 'It Still Does Nothing'. And just as data use started to take off and the Internet got going - and the telcos renamed it 'I Smell Dollars Now' -- 56k modems and broadband swept in and stole the market. ISDN, RIP.
And so it goes with 3G today. There are alternatives that are nearly as good, yet cheaper. Where it does have a chance to shine, 3G data cards are currently much too expensive -- which stops the mass market from driving the costs down and prevents Nokia from investing too much in developing handsets to fuel further interest.
So is this vicious circle breakable? Only if the 3G industry can learn from ISDN's mistakes. It must be solidly marketed at each level of the industry, from handsets to networks to applications. Ah yes, applications. Do you know a killer app for 3G? Neither do we. Email, web browsing and remote access work kind of OK over GPRS, and enterprise doesn't give a fig for video. Think hard.
If this isn't sorted out soon then just as broadband finally put the kibosh on ISDN, WiMax will effortlessly absorb the market. 3G cannot afford to wait.
Talkback
Greetings Zdsters!
Please keep my email out of circulation but feel free to use my name.
I just wanted to make you aware of something.
I joined the three network a year ago because, well, it seemed like a good deal, and for the most part, it was, until December rolled past. Since Jan this year I have had worse coverage month on month and repeated claims that there was something wrong with the network just caused them to send replacement handsets and SIM cards, which, of course, fixed nothing.
Repeated calls to support just caused some poor underpaid operative in Sri Lanka to roll through their litany of checking my local network (THEM: "your coverage there is excellent" ME: I know, I can see four bars but most of my calls get dropped" THEM: "there should be no reason for that" ME: I know" THEM: "hmm...") and not realising I have BOTH a home and work place (!!) (THEM: "your coverage there in NW2 is very good" ME: I'm at work in EC1" THEM: "is not your address 123 street name?" ME: "Er, yes, but it is a Mobile phone!!! I am working just like you!")
So I had enough and, now that my contract is ending in a month ~I am shopping for another deal. Even my old Motorola Brick-U-Like phone circa 1991 gave better service, and for the most part, dropped calls were de rigeur then. Frannkly, I shouldn't have to climb a ladder in the back garden to call the local cab office. My wife rings from the cellar, why can't I ring from the back office of the house?
An hour after my 30 day's notice to cancel my account (which took over 20 minutes, talking to three people who asked me seven times to try one of their special offers!), I call a mate only to find my phone is claiming an "Inactive SIM" and I cannot make calls. I just want to pick up my phone and make calls that I pay for and not have calls drop for no reason in an Strong signal area. And no "special offer" can beat simple unobtrusive service.
Another 45 minutes calling various numbers, and on hold for 20 minute stretches I discover that "several others" are experiencing this problem and three cannot help me, do not know when it will be fixed, can't say how I will be notified when it does change nor what I should do to help. The website mentions nothing and customer services is as out of the loop as I am. There will be no compensation and, umm, that's it.
The only thing they did not say was "bugger off" but they didn't need to, their inaction, incompetence and subterfuge said it for them.
Alone, adrift and forgotten if you ask me....
So if anyone else is experiencing this from three, or if anyone else knows what is going on and how we can get some money back off the useless plods, let me know and to anyone considering a three contract, I suggest you look for any of the review sites that overwhelmingly warn people away from 3G in great numbers.
3G? 3/10 G!