The Day Ahead: Online music earnings nothing to dance about

NEWS
Online music may be the future, but the latest batch of earnings from two key Internet music players won't have investors dancing. CDNow missed bottom line expectations and Liquid Audio missed top line expectations. Granted, the online music industry is young, but the results from veteran CDNow and upstart Liquid Audio show the sector may be too undeveloped for many investors. We'll start with CDNow. The company missed First Call estimates in its fourth quarter with an operating loss of 85 cents a share on sales of $53.1 million. First Call estimates called for a loss of 80 cents a share based on a poll of two analysts. Sales were up 154 percent from a year ago, but it doesn't really matter because the music e-tailer will always be compared to Amazon.com. And Amazon reported music sales of $78m (£48m) on Wednesday. Music e-tailing is a two-horse race between Amazon and CDNow and Amazon has all the mindshare on Wall Street. The other real sticking point in the CDNow story is its merger with Columbia House, a joint venture between Sony and Time Warner. Officials said on a conference call last night that the Columbia House merger was expected to close in the second quarter. Initially, the deal was supposed to close in the first quarter. Meanwhile, America Online merged with Time Warner and executives left CDNow hanging for two weeks before they said they supported the Columbia House-CDNow merger. Until the Columbia House deal is done, any synergies that could help CDNow are on hold. And the merger better hurry up -- CDNow has about $20.6m in cash at the end of the fourth quarter compared to $49m a year ago. The theory that has CDNow shareholders hanging on goes like this: CDNow will be the king of digital delivery of music once its in the AOL-Time Warner fold. Via the recent Warner Music-EMI Music joint venture and its likely ties to Sony, CDNow can deliver never-ending stream of hits digitally. Other competitors such as MP3.com have to rely on relatively unknown artists to make a buck. CDNow, which doesn't fulfill its own orders like Amazon and other e-tailers, could have a high margin business once everyone starts downloading music over broadband pipes. The catch? Some analysts say broadband online music distribution may be four years from primetime. What will keep you interested in CDNow shares until then? There are positives about CDNow, but skeptics can shoot holes in those pretty quickly. CDNow is running a promotion with Pizza Hut to deliver custom CDs through February 20. That's good exposure, but guess who's fulfilling the orders? Musicmaker.com, which said earlier this week it's for sale. Musicmaker.com may deliver the goods well, but it is untested to say the least. Untested is an apt description for other online music companies too. Next up: Liquid Audio. Some brokerages (underwriters of the Liquid Audio IPO mostly) will tell you Liquid Audio is the only next generation music stock worth owning. Not so fast. Liquid Audio did report a smaller-than-expected loss, but sales were light in the fourth quarter at $1.3m, down from the third quarter's tally of $1.8m. Analysts were expecting sales of $2m. Liquid Audio had to put $1m on the deferred revenue line because of a delayed licensing contract with its Liquid Audio Japan venture, which trades in Tokyo. In a nutshell, officials said there were some fine points of a contract that didn't get done in time for the fourth quarter. The good news? That revenue will show up in the first quarter. The bad news? Liquid Audio didn't execute well enough to get it done in the fourth quarter. As far as cash goes, Liquid Audio isn't hurting: It had $157.8m in cash at the end of the fourth quarter courtesy of a secondary offering, up from $70.5m at the end of the third quarter. Liquid Audio has dropped the download music model to focus on being a platform for music delivery. That's the reason folks are bullish on the company. The big deal with Liquid Audio is its partnerships. The company recently inked a deal with Microsoft to make available its entire music catalog in Windows Media format. Liquid Audio, which partnered with what could have been a fierce competitor, will operate as a clearinghouse for digital rights management. Liquid Audio is partnered with America Online and RealNetworks and has the music industry in its corner. The company also has alliances with Yahoo! and Amazon.com and can deliver music over MP3 and other formats. Officials said the AOL-Time Warner deal is only good news for them (funny how CDNow said that too). Lehman Brothers, a Liquid Audio underwriter, made a big statement last month and raised its 12-month price target from $50 to $100. Considering Liquid Audio isn't even at the first price target, that's saying something. See ZDII for US tech investor news. See techTrader for more technology investment news, plus quotes and research.

Post your comment

In order to post a comment you need to be registered and logged in.

You can also log in with Facebook. Log in or create your ZDNet UK account below

  • Login

Will not be displayed with your comment

By signing up for this service, you indicate that you agree to our Terms and Conditions and have read and understood our Privacy Policy. Questions about membership? Find the answers in the Community FAQ

Get ZDNet UK's daily newsletter

Enter your email address to sign up

ZDNet UK Live

Moley

@GrueMaster. I prefer horses for courses rather than one size fits all. I, and I suspect most other computer users, do not really wish to have...

35 minutes ago by Moley on A tale of two distros: Ubuntu and Linux Mint
greycynic

The product that scares me every time I have to use it is the Office 2007 version of Excel. The first bug that I found was applying the median...

38 minutes ago by greycynic on Ten flawed products that derail productivity
GrueMaster

Nice review and very informative. One thing I'd like to add (in reply to whs001's 1st question), the main reason to have the same interface from...

2 hours ago by GrueMaster on A tale of two distros: Ubuntu and Linux Mint
Frederick Wrigley

I'be been using Mint 12 since the RC came out, and I am far more happy with the Cinnamon, the Mate, and, yes (with extensions), theGnome 3...

3 hours ago by Frederick Wrigley via Facebook on A tale of two distros: Ubuntu and Linux Mint
bdantas

Excellent article. One small correction, though--although a fresh installation of Linux Mint 12 will, indeed, provide the user with a version of...

4 hours ago by bdantas on A tale of two distros: Ubuntu and Linux Mint
Alan Ralph

In related news, the ISPs club together to get the members of the Home Affairs Select Committee (ya goofed on that part, ZDNet UK) copies of "The...

4 hours ago by Alan Ralph via Facebook on MPs urge ISPs to take down terrorist material
Alan Ralph

In related news, the ISPs club together to get the members of the Home Affairs Select Committee (ya goofed on that part, ZDNet UK) copies of "The...

4 hours ago by Alan Ralph via Facebook on MPs urge ISPs to take down terrorist material
Moley

For Gnome 2 die-hards, it is possible to add icons to the bottom panel (or top top panel, if you prefer) which provide the exact Gnome 2...

5 hours ago by Moley on A tale of two distros: Ubuntu and Linux Mint
ramwellian

Your comments would seem pretty naive and immature. Your 'solution' appears to be, "gee, let's all just give in to the hackers and give them...

5 hours ago by ramwellian on Cloud computing security: no more oxymoron?
BugStalker

"Interesting thought ... If you installed Win7 as a dual boot on a machine that previously only had Linux, and it wrecked your Linux installation,...

5 hours ago by BugStalker on Windows 7 Declares War on GRUB
whs001

This is an excellent summary of Ubuntu and Mint and the interface differences between them. Most such articles take a very partisan position for...

5 hours ago by whs001 on A tale of two distros: Ubuntu and Linux Mint
Moley

@ewallace. Not so clear. Anyone can obtain the text, for example from here http://www.ustr.gov/webfm_send/2379. I support ACTA so long as it and...

6 hours ago by Moley on ACTA: Facts, misconceptions and questions
45283

I think WinRT is fantastic. I just wish it was an option for people that didn't want to go through Microsoft's App Store with its attendant...

9 hours ago by 45283 on Why Windows 8 needs architectural hygiene for WOA
Burn-IT

Nine people? £30m? Who's back pocket is that lot going in? And IF they say it is for new buildings, what about all the ones the government has...

10 hours ago by Burn-IT on Police set to launch three £30m e-crime hubs
ewallace

Just to be clear, nobody knows what is in the text of ACTA, here is a photograph of the text of ACTA http://twitpic.com/8h9iju as submitted to the...

10 hours ago by ewallace on ACTA: Facts, misconceptions and questions
fgvrg56

Unfortunately main issue is that ASUS is refusing to accept that they make some mistake on this version of asus Transformer prime. 1 - GPS sensor...

11 hours ago by fgvrg56 on Asus Eee Pad Transformer Prime Wi-Fi & GPS problems?
Ben Woods

@Marcus A fair question. Just talked with Archos which said it was working on an announcement for next week....

12 hours ago by Ben Woods on Archos confirms G9 Ice Cream Sandwich update schedule
Marcus Karlsson

Any update on this, considering the claimed "first week of February"?

13 hours ago by Marcus Karlsson via Facebook on Archos confirms G9 Ice Cream Sandwich update schedule
apexwm

Bill Goodrich : Just as al_langevin pointed out, with Windows Server 2008 there is no Services for Macintosh anymore. It's gone, not available....

22 hours ago by apexwm on Windows Server 2008 drops the ball for Mac compatibility
txtrainguy

Replying to an old topic that I'm currently facing with my CEO (who is on a Mac). Our servers are primarily Windows Servers, office is about...

1 day ago by txtrainguy on Windows Server 2008 drops the ball for Mac compatibility