What are the cable companies doing right now?
Cox is trialing VoIP in Oklahoma City, with more trials by end of year. Comcast is testing "friendlies," or test homes, in suburban Philadelphia with Motorola hardware. Cablevision Systems began trial a voice service -- $35 (£22) for all you can eat -- using Siemens soft switches. The only other is Time Warner's second-line service, which is called Digital Phone and uses Cisco Systems equipment. It's got about 1,000 users.
But doesn't that highlight a big problem? Most are only trials at very early stages.
I would have said that, too. But I think cable operators are accelerating their IP telephony deployments.
What makes you say that?
I can tell by phone calls, the discussions we have with cable operators, and the increased competition they are seeing, how RBOCs are lowering prices for broadband and how virtual operators like Packet8 or Vonage DigitalVoice are out competing with some cable operators. Again, I see Cox's success with high penetration and low churn.
So when does VoIP take off?
VoIP as a technology has just reached the starting line.
When does the starter's pistol fire?
I think that'll happen in 12 to 18 months. All you need is one cable operator to commit before you see others rolling out and scaling.
Who wins and who loses if circuit-switched versions of IP telephony disappear?
Consumers win. They get telephony at a lower price with more features and one unified bill.
Won't the Baby Bells lose?
The Bells have been pretty resilient over the years. Just look at the history of telephony in this country. The Bells have done pretty well. They'll figure something out. They have deep pockets. They'll always do well. I have great confidence in their ability to bob and weave and do whatever they need to do.
