But Intel has some black marks on its record when it comes to influencing computer designs beyond the processor. Years of backing Rambus memory technology came to nothing. And while Compaq Computer, IBM and HP successfully pushed PCI-X -- the first extension to PCI -- Intel advocated a PCI Express predecessor called Next-Generation Input-Output. NGIO became part of the InfiniBand technology that Intel eventually dropped. "After racking up one strike with Rambus and another with InfiniBand, the last thing Intel needs is a third strike with 3GIO," said InQuest Market Research analyst Bert McComas in a report this month. "3GIO is comparatively late, offers little in the way of performance benefits and introduces new complexities in silicon integration and motherboard design." Kimball Brown, vice president of business development at ServerWorks, said future versions of PCI Express hold potential, but today's technology just isn't worth it. It will take 16 PCI Express links bundled together to reach the performance of the faster version of PCI-X 2, called 533. Intel disagrees. Pappas said eight PCI Express links will beat out PCI-X 2 533 because PCI Express can simultaneously transfer data in two directions, while PCI is one way. Dell buys Intel's argument, chiefly on the basis of cost, said Joe Sekel, senior server architect at Dell. PCI Express is plenty fast, he said. It's also geared not only for plug-in cards but also for high-speed networking chips soldered straight into the computer. And sooner or later companies need to switch to serial communications. "At this point, our plans are to go for PCI Express out of the chute," Sekel said, though he didn't rule out PCI-X 2.0 support, given issues around customer preferences and the ever-present possibilities for schedule slips. The technology issue of serial vs. parallel communications boils down to the best way to get information from one point to another. Parallel communication uses several wires -- 64 in the case of PCI-X 2.0 -- that carry signals that travel in lockstep. But it's difficult to make sure the lines are synchronized because the wires typically extend different distances as they turn corners and suffer different interference depending on what other signals are nearby. Rather than forcing data transfers to march to the beat of a single clock, serial communication sends information, including timing information, down high-speed lines that aren't synchronized with one another. A "deserializer" at the far end of the lines has the job of pulling out sequence and timing information from the high-speed lines and reconstructing the original data. In the long run, it seems likely serial connections will win out. ServerWorks' Brown believes the high-speed serial technology in PCI Express has merit eventually -- for example, later in the decade, when each line can transfer data at 5 gigabits per second instead of the 2.5 gigabits per second of the first versions of PCI Express. The important factor is whether to make the change now or later. "Change is always difficult," Dell's Sekel said. "What we look for is the right opportunity... so we only have to do it once."
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