Because of this, the machines will live on for some time, some analysts say. "There are a lot of advantages to both consumers and the manufacturers," said Steve Baker, an analyst with NPD Techworld. "Consumers say, 'I want a notebook that's got all the components I need, like a floppy drive, integrated, and I want it to be unobtrusive in my home.' You put that together, and it says big and beefy notebooks are here to stay for consumers." Indeed, "for people looking for flexibility, this type of notebook is really going to be useful," said Jennifer Langer, a marketing manager with Dell. "They can use it in the den or in the kitchen, without sacrificing performance" over a desktop. The next generation of these machines -- models like HP's Presario 2500, announced on Wednesday -- have even more horsepower for about the same price. Toshiba's Satellite 1955 took the trend even further, featuring a 16-inch screen and a detachable wireless keyboard. The company is expected to update the machine, which offers a 2.5GHz Pentium 4 chip, with a faster Pentium 4 chip expected in the near future. But analysts say that even with consumers embracing desktop notebooks, Intel's Pentium 4-M processor is still the silent majority, boasting by far the greatest number of overall units shipped per quarter. Of the six million to seven million notebooks sold per quarter, around one million include desktop processors such as the Pentium 4, said Dean McCarron, an analyst with Mercury Research. The rest use Pentium 4-M, Pentium III-M and Celeron chips from Intel as well as Advanced Micro Devices' Athlon XP or even Transmeta's Crusoe. "The place is where this is really going to fly is where customers don't care about the battery life and prices are a really big issue," McCarron said. "What that tells you is it's limited to consumer retail" and so is unlikely to expand to business. HP readily admits that its desktop-replacement models won't work for everyone. The notebooks' use of desktop Pentium 4s, which consume more power than a Pentium 4-M chips, require trade-offs in battery life. This trade-off could hamper consumers in using wireless as the number of "hot spots", or public places that give people wireless access, increases, said Alan Promisel, an analyst with IDC. Fredrik Hamberger, senior product marketing manager for HP notebooks, said that for people who want "more mobility, (the company's Presario) 2100 series with an AMD Athlon...will give better battery life than a (Presario) 2500." "Depending on how wireless goes, Pentium 4 desktop (chips) may be challenged," he added. But to date, "it really hasn't been that huge of a priority to minimize the size of the box (for consumers). Instead, the drivers are processors, screen size and hard drives." Plugging into wireless
Promisel said consumers will eventually move toward Centrino notebooks for their longer battery life and wireless capabilities. He recommends manufacturers use processors designed for mobility in their notebooks. Intel's Pentium 4-M comes with SpeedStep, which slows down the chip when running on battery power to conserve energy, and other features designed to extend battery life. But, in terms of computing power, all of its Pentium 4 chips are identical. However, the company has quietly reacted to the desktop notebooks, in part by lowering the prices of its Pentium 4-M chips, and also by making the desktop Pentium 4s available in mobile packages -- the same ones that allow Pentium 4-Ms to fit inside notebooks, McCarron said. For a while, Intel even quietly marketed a hybrid part, the Pentium 4C, that consumed less power than the desktop part, but costs less than the mobile part. The pricing and packaging measures, which seem to oppose each other, encourage manufacturers to create notebooks that can still accommodate mobile processors. But Intel's overall goal is to reel manufacturers back in by making sure notebooks don't lose the ability to use mobile chips, then to convince their manufacturers to use the Pentium 4-M, cutting the price gap between it and desktop chips, McCarron said. Intel will also use its Centrino technology, which promises greater battery life, to attract more mobility-oriented buyers. Still, whether or not manufacturers respond, and abandon future versions of the Pentium 4 desktop chip for mobile processors like Intel's Pentium-M and its Centrino technology, remains to be seen. "There are opportunities in both areas," Hamberger said. "For the foreseeable future, we will continue to support (desktop Pentium 4) on our road map, and we continue to sell quite a lot of volume."
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