Already PC makers have shown that they are willing to break from Microsoft in some cases; most notably Hewlett-Packard recently decided to make Apple's iTunes the default media player on some of its new computers. If the European Commission were to push that trend further, eliminating developers' certainty that Microsoft's media player would be installed on every PC, the market could slowly shift, some say.
"If application developers, including Microsoft's own, could no longer be able to count on Win media being there, they might think that maybe they need to ship their own player along with their products," said Rob Helm, research director for Directions on Microsoft, a research firm focusing specifically on the software company. "Then they might go to RealNetworks or someone else. That opens up a lot more competition on PC platforms."
RealNetworks itself is suing Microsoft on antitrust grounds , alleging that the software giant has made it impossible to compete fairly in the PC media player market. But Real is focusing more and more heavily on future platforms such as mobile phones, and worries too that Microsoft may yet use its Windows dominance to move into those fields.
"Microsoft's illegal conduct has reduced our revenues in the PC-based software markets, and limited consumer choice," said Dave Stewart, deputy general counsel for RealNetworks. But "getting a remedy to stop PC-based conduct in digital media markets will definitely safeguard competition on other devices."
Consumer-electronics makers, however, are far less beholden to Microsoft than their PC counterparts, meaning that Microsoft's hold in the post-PC world could be tenuous. Manufacturers of set-top boxes and other non-PC devices aren't tied to Windows by their customers' previous experiences and have already in many cases adopted the Linux operating system as an alternative.
Nevertheless, it's hard to imagine -- ruling or no ruling -- that Microsoft's presence in the post-PC world is not already assured, analysts say.
"Microsoft might have wanted more time," Gartner's McGuire said. "But they've done a pretty good job of seeding the market."
