The ID card scheme could cost up to £15bn, almost three times more than the government's estimates, according to the most detailed analysis issued so far.
A full cost breakdown, released today by Kable, estimates that the cards could cost up to £248 each with the entire programme reaching £15.6bn.
This figure is a top level estimate, the most conservative calculation being £6.8bn. The latest figures from the Home Office claim that the scheme will cost £5.8bn, which works out at £93 a card.
The figures, compiled ahead of the second Commons hearing of the identity cards bill, take all areas of the programme into account including running the database, staff costs for verifying biometrics and consultancy fees. They are based on research into existing government IT programmes and similar work taking place across industry.
Similar calculations using Kable's costings model form the basis of the London School of Economics (LSE) estimates for the programme, also due to be published ahead of the second reading.
Key costs from Kable's analysis include:
- More than £4.1bn to run the ID cards service. This figure includes verification, enforcement and tackling fraud;
- A total of £265m for card readers if three biometrics are used on the cards;
- Over £670m for the national identity database. This figure includes £180m set up costs and over
- £490m running costs; and
- Costs of £1.1bn on promoting the scheme, and consultancy fees.
The low estimate of £6.8bn assumes that existing IT systems will not have to be modified, that advertising the scheme will come to £300m and that staff costs for verification will be around £400m rather than the high estimate of over £900m.
Talkback
And don't forget the cost over run when they find out their Asset database is so out of date they need to audit everything again.
Of course, these figures assume that the rollout is within a 12 month period, and does not include back handers/ scams/ inflated prices/ greediness. Like all the government funded schemes, the fatal flaw in this is the timescales involved. Because of the complexity of the iris/fingerprint and other biometric information, their plans are unfortuantly doomed to failure, but don't despair, because, by the time the get round to doing it correctly and have ironed out all the bugs, I will be 90 (only another 40 + years to go), and even then that will be if they start from Z and work backwards, if they start on year, I will be long gone from this earth by the time they get to me, My daughter may get an ID card by the time she is 60 (45 years). There are so many imponderables on this issue, I wouldn't worry.