When Barack Obama becomes US president in January with a strongly Democratic Congress, he'll have the chance to push a technology policy that relies more on government subsidy and regulation than that of his immediate predecessor.
In Washington and Silicon Valley circles, betting has already begun on who will be the nation's first chief technology officer (CTO). Could it be Google chief executive Eric Schmidt, who endorsed Obama? Or Vint Cerf? Or perhaps ex-regulator Reed Hundt, who's been a proxy for the president elect?
Obama wants the CTO to "ensure that our government and all its agencies have the right infrastructure, policies and services for the 21st century", as well as protecting the security of .gov computer networks. That's a tall task for one person, although there's some precedent: Bill Clinton handed much responsibility for internet regulation to Ira Magaziner after his administration's healthcare debacle.
Any administration will find healthcare to be a massive project, especially an administration distracted by the Iraq occupation and a recession. Enacting new government regulations aimed at healthcare records and their electronic storage is an obvious first step that's already been kicking around Congress for a while.
Copyright
On copyright, the conventional thinking is that Democrats are more likely to align themselves with the recording and movie industries' wishes. That may not be the case here: it was John McCain who talked up more aggressive enforcement of copyright law domestically, while Obama said "we need to update and reform our copyright and patent systems to promote civic discourse, innovation and investment, while ensuring that intellectual-property owners are fairly treated".
That statement is, of course, intentionally vague. Obama was also vague when asked whether he wants to amend the Digital Millennium Copyright Act to let Americans make a single backup copy of a DVD or computer game that they have legally purchased. He said only that he'd support such a move "in concept".
Internationally, however, Obama would not take an obviously different approach than the policies that the Bush administration has followed and that a McCain administration would have. Obama's website states that "China fails to enforce US copyrights and trademarks" and that additional international enforcement and standards are needed.
Congress and free trade
For technology firms, a substantial downside — and one that's difficult to overstate — is how hostile a solidly Democratic Congress and White House could be towards free trade.
Obama doesn't have the ideological bias toward free trade that Clinton had and is certain to face strong protectionist pressure from within his own party. After a handful of Democrats joined Republicans to approve the Central America Free Trade Agreement in 2005, the 15 dissidents were hounded by their own party and by labour activists. Only a rare politician would take that risk again.
The Democrats' populist streak could hurt technology companies in other ways as well. Obama has promoted more aggressive antitrust actions, which could hurt Silicon Valley companies like Yahoo and Google that are already reeling from the scrutiny of a supposedly free-market Republican administration. Additionally, Obama has only promised to expand the H-1B visa programme temporarily.
Universal broadband
More tax dollars diverted to universal broadband is a goal often promoted by the Democrats, and Obama's CTO would, at the very least, influence how such a goal is met. The Obama campaign has enthusiastically portrayed broadband access as the way to a more perfect democracy, and Democratic members of Congress, like Anna Eshoo of California, have promoted the idea.
Eshoo's resolution, however, does little beyond call for more work to be done. Finding the funds to create wider broadband access could be a challenge; it would have to be paid for by higher taxes, reduced spending elsewhere or running up the federal deficit.
Michael Powell, former chairman of the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC), said at a forum in September that it is unrealistic to entertain the "idea that there's money to get people to dig up streets and put in fibre. National broadband policy is probably going to have to be a lot more subtle".
Net neutrality
Net neutrality is another open question. Obama wanted new government regulation of the internet, while McCain was sceptical. Some prominent technologists, including Cisco's Robert Pepper, Carnegie Mellon University's Dave Farber, and internet founding father Bob Kahn, are sceptical too.
Because politicians tend to dislike seeking out trouble, a resolution will probably wait until a federal appeals court deals with Comcast's appeal over a related order by the FCC. Comcast has claimed the FCC does not have the authority to impose net-neutrality regulations.
If the court sides with the FCC, it will sap energy from a push for extensive new net-neutrality laws; if the decision goes the other way, look for Congress to get involved. Net neutrality is, after all, the very first issue addressed in Obama's technology policy platform. House speaker Nancy Pelosi has talked up the idea, and senator Byron Dorgan introduced related legislation last year.
Talkback
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